Resource Based Production Forecast

in Peak Oil by
RESOURCE BASED PRODUCTION FORECAST
Revised 2004 May 15
Regular Oil by Country, 2000 O&GJ
Mb/d20002005201020202050
1Russia6.339.0610.004.840.55
2Saudi Arabia8.008.448.447.183.59
3Iran3.683.733.412.721.39
4US-484.453.572.611.400.22
5China3.243.152.571.720.51
6Mexico3.013.042.371.430.32
7Norway3.212.621.820.870.10
8Nigeria2.032.342.141.510.53
9Iraq2.572.672.932.931.93
10Kuwait1.771.861.861.861.32
11Abu Dhabi1.901.861.861.860.95
12UK2.511.841.340.710.10
13Venezuela2.571.661.541.320.84
14Libya1.411.511.931.610.75
15Algeria0.811.271.210.850.29
16Kazakhstan0.680.981.251.811.33
17Canada1.080.960.690.360.05
18Indonesia1.270.950.800.570.21
19Oman0.930.760.620.410.12
20Malaysia0.690.700.510.270.04
21Azerbaijan0.280.680.800.600.25
22Egypt0.810.660.470.250.03
23Qatar0.690.650.500.300.06
24India0.650.640.520.350.11
25Argentina0.750.620.430.210.02
26N. Zone0.630.600.540.400.17
27Angola0.740.600.480.310.08
28Colombia0.690.490.390.240.06
29Australia0.700.470.360.200.04
30Syria0.520.470.340.180.01
31Brazil0.360.420.280.130.01
32Ecuador0.400.410.370.250.08
33Denmark0.360.330.230.110.01
34Yemen0.350.300.210.110.01
35Vietnam0.300.300.270.140.02
36Dubai0.280.280.180.080.01
37Chad0.000.250.250.140.01
38Sudan0.190.230.230.110.01
39Gabon0.330.220.160.100.02
40Congo0.270.210.140.070.01
41Turkmenistan0.140.190.170.130.06
42Brunei0.180.170.130.070.01
43Thailand0.110.160.130.060.01
44Uzbekistan0.160.140.140.100.04
45Trinidad0.120.120.100.070.02
46Romania0.120.110.100.080.05
47Italy0.090.100.080.060.02
48Peru0.100.080.070.050.02
49Ukraine0.070.080.070.060.03
50Germany0.060.070.050.030.01
51Tunisia0.080.060.060.040.02
52Cameroon0.090.060.040.020.00
53Pakistan0.040.050.040.030.01
54Papua0.070.050.040.030.01
55Netherlands0.030.040.030.020.01
56Turkey0.060.040.030.020.01
57Sharjah0.050.040.030.020.00
58Bolivia0.030.030.040.050.02
59Bahrain0.030.030.020.010.00
60Hungary0.030.020.020.020.01
61France0.030.020.020.010.00
62Croatia0.020.020.020.020.01
63Austria0.020.020.010.010.00
64Chile0.010.010.010.000.00
65Albania0.010.010.010.010.01
Regular Oil by Region ( Mb/d )
20002005201020202050
ME Gulf18.51919179
Eurasia11.1141593
N.America5.54.53.31.80.3
L.America8.06.95.73.81.4
Africa6.77.47.15.01.8
Europe6.35.03.61.80.3
Far East4.03.52.81.70.4
ME Other2.92.61.91.10.2
Other0.50.60.60.40.1
Unforeseen0.00.00.12.2
Non-MEGulf454540259
MEGulf Share29%30%33%41%51%
WORLD6465604219
Excl. bitumen, heavy, deepwater, polar, NGL
Other Liquid Hydrocarbons
Oil Mb/d Mb/d Mb/d Mb/dMb/d
Heavy Oils (#1)1.42.63.44.35.7
Canada1.01.32.02.83.9
Venezuela I0.50.50.50.61.1
Venezuela II0.00.70.70.70.2
Other0.00.20.20.30.5
Deepwater (#2)1.35.68.43.80.1
G. Mexico0.72.02.10.90
Brazil0.61.51.80.80
Angola0.00.82.20.70
Nigeria0.00.51.40.40
Other0.00.81.01.00.1
Polar1.00.90.92.10.4
Alaska1.00.80.60.40.1
Other0.00.10.31.70.3
Other (#3)0.00.10.30.51.0
Subtotal4913117

 

Gas & Gas Liquids(Gas at 6cf=1boe)
Gas3945535936
Non-con gas122410
Subtotal4147556446
Gas Liquids
NGL (#4)689116
All Hydrocarbons
Gas4147556446
Liquids7482826433
Processing Gain1.51.61.61.30.7
Total11613113912979
Balance with 1.5% annual demand growth
Liquids Mb/d
Supply7584846533
Demand758187101158
Balance03-3-36-125
NOTES
Regular Oil includes condensate (in oilfields)
Production number for 2000, Oil&Gas Journal
(#1) Bitumen, Extra-Heavy Oil, Heavy Oil (<17.5)
(#2) Oil in water depth of more than 500m
(#3) Oil from oil-shales, coal
(#4) Liquids from Natural Gas plants & gasfields
Base Case Scenario assumes negligible spare
capacity with decline at current or midpoint depletion rate
ME-Gulf = A.Dhabi, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, NZ, S.Arabia
Eurasia= FSU, E.Europe & China
N.America = USA & Canada
Venezuela I = ordinary heavy
Venezuela II = 4 Extra-Heavy oil projects
Year 2000 from Oil&Gas Journal

 

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