Resource Based Production Forecast

in Peak Oil by
RESOURCE BASED PRODUCTION FORECAST
Revised 2004 May 15
Regular Oil by Country, 2000 O&GJ
Mb/d 2000 2005 2010 2020 2050
1 Russia 6.33 9.06 10.00 4.84 0.55
2 Saudi Arabia 8.00 8.44 8.44 7.18 3.59
3 Iran 3.68 3.73 3.41 2.72 1.39
4 US-48 4.45 3.57 2.61 1.40 0.22
5 China 3.24 3.15 2.57 1.72 0.51
6 Mexico 3.01 3.04 2.37 1.43 0.32
7 Norway 3.21 2.62 1.82 0.87 0.10
8 Nigeria 2.03 2.34 2.14 1.51 0.53
9 Iraq 2.57 2.67 2.93 2.93 1.93
10 Kuwait 1.77 1.86 1.86 1.86 1.32
11 Abu Dhabi 1.90 1.86 1.86 1.86 0.95
12 UK 2.51 1.84 1.34 0.71 0.10
13 Venezuela 2.57 1.66 1.54 1.32 0.84
14 Libya 1.41 1.51 1.93 1.61 0.75
15 Algeria 0.81 1.27 1.21 0.85 0.29
16 Kazakhstan 0.68 0.98 1.25 1.81 1.33
17 Canada 1.08 0.96 0.69 0.36 0.05
18 Indonesia 1.27 0.95 0.80 0.57 0.21
19 Oman 0.93 0.76 0.62 0.41 0.12
20 Malaysia 0.69 0.70 0.51 0.27 0.04
21 Azerbaijan 0.28 0.68 0.80 0.60 0.25
22 Egypt 0.81 0.66 0.47 0.25 0.03
23 Qatar 0.69 0.65 0.50 0.30 0.06
24 India 0.65 0.64 0.52 0.35 0.11
25 Argentina 0.75 0.62 0.43 0.21 0.02
26 N. Zone 0.63 0.60 0.54 0.40 0.17
27 Angola 0.74 0.60 0.48 0.31 0.08
28 Colombia 0.69 0.49 0.39 0.24 0.06
29 Australia 0.70 0.47 0.36 0.20 0.04
30 Syria 0.52 0.47 0.34 0.18 0.01
31 Brazil 0.36 0.42 0.28 0.13 0.01
32 Ecuador 0.40 0.41 0.37 0.25 0.08
33 Denmark 0.36 0.33 0.23 0.11 0.01
34 Yemen 0.35 0.30 0.21 0.11 0.01
35 Vietnam 0.30 0.30 0.27 0.14 0.02
36 Dubai 0.28 0.28 0.18 0.08 0.01
37 Chad 0.00 0.25 0.25 0.14 0.01
38 Sudan 0.19 0.23 0.23 0.11 0.01
39 Gabon 0.33 0.22 0.16 0.10 0.02
40 Congo 0.27 0.21 0.14 0.07 0.01
41 Turkmenistan 0.14 0.19 0.17 0.13 0.06
42 Brunei 0.18 0.17 0.13 0.07 0.01
43 Thailand 0.11 0.16 0.13 0.06 0.01
44 Uzbekistan 0.16 0.14 0.14 0.10 0.04
45 Trinidad 0.12 0.12 0.10 0.07 0.02
46 Romania 0.12 0.11 0.10 0.08 0.05
47 Italy 0.09 0.10 0.08 0.06 0.02
48 Peru 0.10 0.08 0.07 0.05 0.02
49 Ukraine 0.07 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.03
50 Germany 0.06 0.07 0.05 0.03 0.01
51 Tunisia 0.08 0.06 0.06 0.04 0.02
52 Cameroon 0.09 0.06 0.04 0.02 0.00
53 Pakistan 0.04 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.01
54 Papua 0.07 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.01
55 Netherlands 0.03 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.01
56 Turkey 0.06 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.01
57 Sharjah 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.00
58 Bolivia 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.02
59 Bahrain 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.01 0.00
60 Hungary 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.01
61 France 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.00
62 Croatia 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.01
63 Austria 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.00
64 Chile 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00
65 Albania 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
Regular Oil by Region ( Mb/d )
2000 2005 2010 2020 2050
ME Gulf 18.5 19 19 17 9
Eurasia 11.1 14 15 9 3
N.America 5.5 4.5 3.3 1.8 0.3
L.America 8.0 6.9 5.7 3.8 1.4
Africa 6.7 7.4 7.1 5.0 1.8
Europe 6.3 5.0 3.6 1.8 0.3
Far East 4.0 3.5 2.8 1.7 0.4
ME Other 2.9 2.6 1.9 1.1 0.2
Other 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.1
Unforeseen 0.0 0.0 0.1 2.2
Non-MEGulf 45 45 40 25 9
MEGulf Share 29% 30% 33% 41% 51%
WORLD 64 65 60 42 19
Excl. bitumen, heavy, deepwater, polar, NGL
Other Liquid Hydrocarbons
Oil Mb/d Mb/d Mb/d Mb/d Mb/d
Heavy Oils (#1) 1.4 2.6 3.4 4.3 5.7
Canada 1.0 1.3 2.0 2.8 3.9
Venezuela I 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 1.1
Venezuela II 0.0 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.2
Other 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5
Deepwater (#2) 1.3 5.6 8.4 3.8 0.1
G. Mexico 0.7 2.0 2.1 0.9 0
Brazil 0.6 1.5 1.8 0.8 0
Angola 0.0 0.8 2.2 0.7 0
Nigeria 0.0 0.5 1.4 0.4 0
Other 0.0 0.8 1.0 1.0 0.1
Polar 1.0 0.9 0.9 2.1 0.4
Alaska 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.1
Other 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.7 0.3
Other (#3) 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.0
Subtotal 4 9 13 11 7

 

Gas & Gas Liquids (Gas at 6cf=1boe)
Gas 39 45 53 59 36
Non-con gas 1 2 2 4 10
Subtotal 41 47 55 64 46
Gas Liquids
NGL (#4) 6 8 9 11 6
All Hydrocarbons
Gas 41 47 55 64 46
Liquids 74 82 82 64 33
Processing Gain 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.3 0.7
Total 116 131 139 129 79
Balance with 1.5% annual demand growth
Liquids Mb/d
Supply 75 84 84 65 33
Demand 75 81 87 101 158
Balance 0 3 -3 -36 -125
NOTES
Regular Oil includes condensate (in oilfields)
Production number for 2000, Oil&Gas Journal
(#1) Bitumen, Extra-Heavy Oil, Heavy Oil (<17.5)
(#2) Oil in water depth of more than 500m
(#3) Oil from oil-shales, coal
(#4) Liquids from Natural Gas plants & gasfields
Base Case Scenario assumes negligible spare
capacity with decline at current or midpoint depletion rate
ME-Gulf = A.Dhabi, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, NZ, S.Arabia
Eurasia= FSU, E.Europe & China
N.America = USA & Canada
Venezuela I = ordinary heavy
Venezuela II = 4 Extra-Heavy oil projects
Year 2000 from Oil&Gas Journal

 

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