Sensitivity of Predicted Oil Production to the Sigmoid Function

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Publication date: 2007-10-01
First published in: Energy Sources, Part B: Economics, Planning, and Policy
Authors: W. B. Carlson


Mathematical parameters relating to the sensitivity of oil production are modeled by the standard sigmoid function. An analysis of the function is fitted to present and past production data for different ultimately recoverable reserve (URR) assumptions. The sigmoid exponent (S) and peak production year (P) are correlated to past production data in order to model near-term (10-15 year) production. Peak production rates are determined based upon the derivative of the fitted sigmoid function.

Published in: Energy Sources, Part B: Economics, Planning, and Policy, Volume 2, Issue 4 October 2007, pages 321 – 327
Available from: Taylor & Francis

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