publications

Russian Oil – a Depletion Rate Model estimate of the future Russian oil production and export

in Publications by

Publication date: 2007-10-01
First published in: Uppsala University
Authors: Aram Mäkivierikko

Abstract:

Oil is a heavily used natural resource with a limited supply. Russia is one of the largest oil producers and the second largest oil-exporting country in the world. Many surrounding countries are dependent on Russian energy. Swedish oil import from Russia has grown from 5% to 35% during 2001-2005.

The fall of the Soviet Union in 1991 caused the Russian oil production to drop by 50%. The production is currently growing again – but how will it develop in the future?

This report studies different scenarios for Russian oil production and export based on three different estimates of how much oil Russia has left today (70, 120 or 170 Gb), combined with estimates about how fast Russia can produce the oil (a depletion rate of 3%, 4.5% or 6%).

In the worst case, Russian oil production and also the oil export will peak very soon or has already done so in 2006. In the best case, a constant export can be held until 2036. It is not likely that the Russian production will increase more than 5-10% over today’s level.

Published in: Uppsala University,
Available from: Peak Oil

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.

*