Publication date: 2007-09-10
First published in: CIBC World Markets
Authors: Jeff Rubin, Peter Buchanan
The call on OPEC has long been referred to as a measure of pressure on world supply, is the difference between world demand and non-cartel production. But increasingly, what bears watching is OPEC’s growing call on itself, which is simply the difference between what OPEC produces and what it consumes.
Not only is the cartel, along with other key producers like Russia and Mexico, struggling to grow production, but at the same time, their internal consumption rates of oil are soaring. So much so that crude exports from the group as a whole, accounting for roughly 60% of current world oil production, are likely to fall by as much as 2.5 million barrels per day by the end of the decade—resulting in significantly higher oil prices.
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