Multicyclic Hubbert model shows global conventional gas output peaking in 2019

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Publication date: 2004-08-16
First published in: Oil and Gas Journal
Authors: A. Imam et al.


A new, multicyclic approach to modeling future global production of natural gas reaffirms an outlook for growing dependence of Western nations on the Middle East and Russia for their supply as global conventional gas output peaks in the next decade. This multicyclic Hubbert model avoids some of the pitfalls seen with earlier Hubbert-style models of future production peak and decline for oil and gas. However, a lack of country data and questions over the future contribution of unconventional gas resources mean that an entirely accurate picture of future global gas supply through even this improved model is not yet available.

Published in: Oil and Gas Journal, Volume 102, Issue 31, 16 August 2004
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