Correlation Between Oil Production and Reserves Discovery

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Publication date: 2002-06-01
First published in: Natural Resources Research
Authors: M. Feygin


This paper shows that there is a strict quantitative connection between three factors: reserves-to-production ratio (w), the rate of production growth (a), and degree of reserve replenishment during one year (i). The first of these factors shows how many years the current level of production can be supported by existing proved reserves (if both are invariable). The second factor shows how quickly the production increases. The third characterizes the correlation between oil production and reserves discovery, which is the basis for potential oil production growth. For planning purposes, it is important to know how many units of new reserves have to be proved during each year per one unit of production for the different reserves-to-production ratio and production growth. The results of calculating these factors are shown in the table and pictured on the graph. They can be used for regions where the replenishment of proven reserves (factor (i)) exceeds 1 barrel of new reserves per 1 barrel of production. This paper also describes the interdependence and dynamics of these factors when the replenishment of proved reserves is incomplete.

Published in: Natural Resources Research, Volume 11, Number 2, June 2002, Pages 121-124
Available from: Springer

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