A variant of the Hubbert curve for world oil production forecasts

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Publication date: 2009-07-23
First Published in: Energy Policy
Authors: G. Maggio, G. Cacciola


In recent years, the economic and political aspects of energy problems have prompted many researchers and analysts to focus their attention on the Hubbert Peak Theory with the aim of forecasting future trends in world oil production.

In this paper, a model that attempts to contribute in this regard is presented; it is based on a variant of the well-known Hubbert curve. Also, the sum of multiple-Hubbert curves (two cycles) is used to provide a better fit for the historical data on oil production (crude and natural gas liquid (NGL)).

Taking into consideration three possible scenarios for oil reserves, this approach allowed us to forecast when peak oil production, referring to crude oil and NGL, should occur. In particular, by assuming a range of 2250–3000 gigabarrels (Gb) for ultimately recoverable conventional oil, our predictions foresee a peak between 2009 and 2021 at 29.3–32.1 Gb/year.

Published in: Energy Policy, article in press
Available from: ScienceDirect

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