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Theoretical Modeling

Long term prediction of unconventional oil production

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Publication date: 2010-01-01 First Published in: Energy Policy Authors: S.H. Mohr, G.M. Evans Abstract: Although considerable discussion surrounds unconventional oil’s ability to mitigate the effects of peaking conventional oil production, very few models of unconventional oil production exist. The aim of this article was to project unconventional oil production to determine how significant its production…

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A regional logistic function model for crude oil production

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Publication date: 1984-07-01 First Published in: Energy Authors: D.G. Hotard, J.H. Ristroph Abstract: The logistic function has been used to describe the discovery and production of oil and natural gas at the national level. This type of functional representation provides a direct approach for estimating the available supply of the resource and the time at…

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Forecasting world crude oil production using multicyclic Hubbert model

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Publication date: 2010-02-01 First published in: Energy & Fuels Authors: I.S. Nashawi et al Abstract: The year 2008 has witnessed unprecedented fluctuations in the oil prices. During the first three-quarters, the oil price abruptly increased to $140/bbl, a level that has never been reached before; then because of the global economic crisis, the price dramatically…

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A variant of the Hubbert curve for world oil production forecasts

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Publication date: 2009-07-23 First Published in: Energy Policy Authors: G. Maggio, G. Cacciola Abstract: In recent years, the economic and political aspects of energy problems have prompted many researchers and analysts to focus their attention on the Hubbert Peak Theory with the aim of forecasting future trends in world oil production. In this paper, a…

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An Empirical Method to Make Oil Production Models Tolerant to Anomalies

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Publication date: 2009-01-01 First Published in Natural Resources Research Authors: S.H. Mohr, G.M. Evans Abstract: Modeling oil production is of interest to society and hotly debated. Often anomalies have occurred which makes modeling oil production via a particular theory (e.g., Hubbert’s bell curve) difficult. The empirical method described here allows for such historical anomalies to…

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A Thermodynamic Theory of Economics

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Publication date: 2007-06-01 First published in: International Journal of Exergy Authors: J. Bryant Abstract: An analogy between thermodynamic and economic theories and processes is developed further, following a previous paper published by the author in 1982. Economic equivalents are set out concerning the ideal gas equation, the gas constant, pressure, temperature, entropy, work done, specific…

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