Hubbert Curve Archives

World Oil Production via Hubbert Linearization of Production and Normalizations of Production

Published on May 21, 2012 in Publications by Editor

Publication date: 2012-01-30 First published in: Energy Sources, Part B: Economics, Planning, and Policy Authors: W.B. Carlson Abstract: The Hubbert linearization and normalizations for the rate of change of production have been used to depict the trends of oil production via the logistic and Gompertz models. Estimated cumulative production based upon the Hubbert linearization of…

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Much ado about Hotelling: Beware the ides of Hubbert

Published on February 16, 2012 in Publications by Editor

A recent publication in Energy Economics by Douglas Reynolds and Jungho Baek has analyzed the use of Hotelling and Hubbert theories as determinants for oil price. Their conclusion is that scarcity rent has little importance, while the Hubbert curve is a major determinant of oil prices. Abstract: Much economic literature analyzes the Hotelling principle. Little…

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Beyond Peak Oil in Post Globalization Civilization Clash

Published on June 5, 2011 in Publications by Editor

Publication date: 2008-10-01 First published in: The Open Geography Journal Authors: J. Leigh Abstract: Oil has stoked the industrial society for the last century as the cheap energy source. However, ominous signs of oil depletion, in fulfillment of M. King Hubbert’s “Peak Oil” theory, may be eerily encroaching upon us and may portend “The Olduvai…

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At the base of Hubbert’s Peak: Grounding the debate on petroleum scarcity

Published on January 5, 2011 in Publications by Editor

Publication date: 2010-03-03 First published in: Geoforum Authors: E. Hemmingsen Abstract: M. King Hubbert’s 1956 prediction of a ‘peak’ in US oil production has spurred a durable and divisive debate on the exhaustion of the petroleum resource. Pitting physical against economic explanations of resource scarcity, the peak oil debate has seemingly sunk into the well-worn…

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Forecasting world crude oil production using multicyclic Hubbert model

Published on June 22, 2010 in Publications by Editor

Publication date: 2010-02-01 First published in: Energy & Fuels Authors: I.S. Nashawi et al Abstract: The year 2008 has witnessed unprecedented fluctuations in the oil prices. During the first three-quarters, the oil price abruptly increased to $140/bbl, a level that has never been reached before; then because of the global economic crisis, the price dramatically…

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Multicyclic Hubbert model shows global conventional gas output peaking in 2019

Published on April 18, 2010 in Publications by Editor

Publication date: 2004-08-16 First published in: Oil and Gas Journal Authors: A. Imam et al. Abstract: A new, multicyclic approach to modeling future global production of natural gas reaffirms an outlook for growing dependence of Western nations on the Middle East and Russia for their supply as global conventional gas output peaks in the next…

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A simple interpretation of Hubberts model of resource exploitation

Published on January 21, 2010 in Publications by Editor

Publication date: 2009-09-01 First published in: Energies Authors: U. Bardi & A. Lavacchi Abstract: The well known “Hubbert curve” assumes that the production curve of crude oil in a free market economy is “bell shaped” and symmetric. The model was first applied in the 1950s as a way of forecasting the production of crude oil…

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A variant of the Hubbert curve for world oil production forecasts

Published on November 21, 2009 in Publications by Editor

Publication date: 2009-07-23 First Published in: Energy Policy Authors: G. Maggio, G. Cacciola Abstract: In recent years, the economic and political aspects of energy problems have prompted many researchers and analysts to focus their attention on the Hubbert Peak Theory with the aim of forecasting future trends in world oil production. In this paper, a…

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An Empirical Method to Make Oil Production Models Tolerant to Anomalies

Published on July 21, 2009 in Publications by Editor

Publication date: 2009-01-01 First Published in Natural Resources Research Authors: S.H. Mohr, G.M. Evans Abstract: Modeling oil production is of interest to society and hotly debated. Often anomalies have occurred which makes modeling oil production via a particular theory (e.g., Hubbert’s bell curve) difficult. The empirical method described here allows for such historical anomalies to…

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Crossing Hubbert’s peak: Portfolio effects in a growth model with exhaustible resources

Published on August 28, 2008 in Publications by Editor

Publication date: 2007-07-01 First published in: Structural Change and Economic Dynamics Authors: T.R. Michl, D.K. Foley Abstract: This paper elaborates a two-class growth model with an exhaustible resource (“oil”) and an alternative technique (“solar”). Bequest savers accumulate wealth, consisting of capital and oil, saving a constant fraction of their end-of-period wealth. The price of oil…

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