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Hubbert Curve

Much ado about Hotelling: Beware the ides of Hubbert

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A recent publication in Energy Economics by Douglas Reynolds and Jungho Baek has analyzed the use of Hotelling and Hubbert theories as determinants for oil price. Their conclusion is that scarcity rent has little importance, while the Hubbert curve is a major determinant of oil prices. Abstract: Much economic literature analyzes the Hotelling principle. Little…

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Beyond Peak Oil in Post Globalization Civilization Clash

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Publication date: 2008-10-01 First published in: The Open Geography Journal Authors: J. Leigh Abstract: Oil has stoked the industrial society for the last century as the cheap energy source. However, ominous signs of oil depletion, in fulfillment of M. King Hubbert’s “Peak Oil” theory, may be eerily encroaching upon us and may portend “The Olduvai…

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At the base of Hubbert’s Peak: Grounding the debate on petroleum scarcity

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Publication date: 2010-03-03 First published in: Geoforum Authors: E. Hemmingsen Abstract: M. King Hubbert’s 1956 prediction of a ‘peak’ in US oil production has spurred a durable and divisive debate on the exhaustion of the petroleum resource. Pitting physical against economic explanations of resource scarcity, the peak oil debate has seemingly sunk into the well-worn…

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Forecasting world crude oil production using multicyclic Hubbert model

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Publication date: 2010-02-01 First published in: Energy & Fuels Authors: I.S. Nashawi et al Abstract: The year 2008 has witnessed unprecedented fluctuations in the oil prices. During the first three-quarters, the oil price abruptly increased to $140/bbl, a level that has never been reached before; then because of the global economic crisis, the price dramatically…

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A simple interpretation of Hubberts model of resource exploitation

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Publication date: 2009-09-01 First published in: Energies Authors: U. Bardi & A. Lavacchi Abstract: The well known “Hubbert curve” assumes that the production curve of crude oil in a free market economy is “bell shaped” and symmetric. The model was first applied in the 1950s as a way of forecasting the production of crude oil…

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A variant of the Hubbert curve for world oil production forecasts

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Publication date: 2009-07-23 First Published in: Energy Policy Authors: G. Maggio, G. Cacciola Abstract: In recent years, the economic and political aspects of energy problems have prompted many researchers and analysts to focus their attention on the Hubbert Peak Theory with the aim of forecasting future trends in world oil production. In this paper, a…

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An Empirical Method to Make Oil Production Models Tolerant to Anomalies

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Publication date: 2009-01-01 First Published in Natural Resources Research Authors: S.H. Mohr, G.M. Evans Abstract: Modeling oil production is of interest to society and hotly debated. Often anomalies have occurred which makes modeling oil production via a particular theory (e.g., Hubbert’s bell curve) difficult. The empirical method described here allows for such historical anomalies to…

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Crossing Hubbert’s peak: Portfolio effects in a growth model with exhaustible resources

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Publication date: 2007-07-01 First published in: Structural Change and Economic Dynamics Authors: T.R. Michl, D.K. Foley Abstract: This paper elaborates a two-class growth model with an exhaustible resource (“oil”) and an alternative technique (“solar”). Bequest savers accumulate wealth, consisting of capital and oil, saving a constant fraction of their end-of-period wealth. The price of oil…

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Hubberts Peak: The Impending World Oil Shortage

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Publication date: 2003-08-11 First Published In: Book Authors: Kenneth S. Deffeyes Abstract: Review from Scientific American: You have to wonder about the judgment of a man who writes, “As I drive by those smelly refineries on the New Jersey Turnpike, I want to roll the windows down and inhale deeply.” But for Kenneth S. Deffeyes,…

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Out of Gas: The End of the Age Of Oil

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Publication date: 2005-02-28 First Published in: Book Authors: David Goodstein Abstract: Review from Publishers Weekly: Everyone agrees we will run out of fossil fuels someday-Goodstein, a Caltech professor, argues it will be sooner rather than later based on the petrochemical data available. In this alarming little book, portions of which were originally published in a…

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