Oil production in non-Opec countries is set to peak within the next two years, leaving the world increasingly dependent on supplies from the cartel of exporting nations, according to one of the world’s leading energy experts. The North Sea is one of the fastest-declining energy-rich regions in the world, with output falling by an average of 7.5% a year since 2002.
“The days of the international oil companies are coming to a glorious end because their reserves are declining and they will have difficulty accessing new reserves,” Dr. Birol told The Times. “In future we expect most of the new oil to come from a small number of national oil companies.”
Demand growth is no longer coming from the US and Europe but from China, India and the Middle East,” he said. “Because their disposable incomes are growing so fast and because of subsidies, high oil prices will not have a significant impact on demand growth.” It meant that prices would remain extremely high for the foreseeable future and that the fundamental dynamics of the global oil market increasingly were outside of the control of Western countries.
He said it was imperative that governments acted urgently to reduce their dependency on oil and to address the issue of climate change. He stated that the IEA would publish the results of its study of the world’s oilfields in November.