RESOURCE BASED PRODUCTION FORECAST
Revised 2004 May 15
	Regular Oil by Country, 2000 O&GJ
	Mb/d		2000	2005	2010	2020	2050
1	Russia		6.33	9.06	10.00	4.84	0.55
2	Saudi Arabia		8.00	8.44	8.44	7.18	3.59
3	Iran		3.68	3.73	3.41	2.72	1.39
4	US-48		4.45	3.57	2.61	1.40	0.22
5	China		3.24	3.15	2.57	1.72	0.51
6	Mexico		3.01	3.04	2.37	1.43	0.32
7	Norway		3.21	2.62	1.82	0.87	0.10
8	Nigeria		2.03	2.34	2.14	1.51	0.53
9	Iraq		2.57	2.67	2.93	2.93	1.93
10	Kuwait		1.77	1.86	1.86	1.86	1.32
11	Abu Dhabi		1.90	1.86	1.86	1.86	0.95
12	UK		2.51	1.84	1.34	0.71	0.10
13	Venezuela		2.57	1.66	1.54	1.32	0.84
14	Libya		1.41	1.51	1.93	1.61	0.75
15	Algeria		0.81	1.27	1.21	0.85	0.29
16	Kazakhstan		0.68	0.98	1.25	1.81	1.33
17	Canada		1.08	0.96	0.69	0.36	0.05
18	Indonesia		1.27	0.95	0.80	0.57	0.21
19	Oman		0.93	0.76	0.62	0.41	0.12
20	Malaysia		0.69	0.70	0.51	0.27	0.04
21	Azerbaijan		0.28	0.68	0.80	0.60	0.25
22	Egypt		0.81	0.66	0.47	0.25	0.03
23	Qatar		0.69	0.65	0.50	0.30	0.06
24	India		0.65	0.64	0.52	0.35	0.11
25	Argentina		0.75	0.62	0.43	0.21	0.02
26	N. Zone		0.63	0.60	0.54	0.40	0.17
27	Angola		0.74	0.60	0.48	0.31	0.08
28	Colombia		0.69	0.49	0.39	0.24	0.06
29	Australia		0.70	0.47	0.36	0.20	0.04
30	Syria		0.52	0.47	0.34	0.18	0.01
31	Brazil		0.36	0.42	0.28	0.13	0.01
32	Ecuador		0.40	0.41	0.37	0.25	0.08
33	Denmark		0.36	0.33	0.23	0.11	0.01
34	Yemen		0.35	0.30	0.21	0.11	0.01
35	Vietnam		0.30	0.30	0.27	0.14	0.02
36	Dubai		0.28	0.28	0.18	0.08	0.01
37	Chad		0.00	0.25	0.25	0.14	0.01
38	Sudan		0.19	0.23	0.23	0.11	0.01
39	Gabon		0.33	0.22	0.16	0.10	0.02
40	Congo		0.27	0.21	0.14	0.07	0.01
41	Turkmenistan		0.14	0.19	0.17	0.13	0.06
42	Brunei		0.18	0.17	0.13	0.07	0.01
43	Thailand		0.11	0.16	0.13	0.06	0.01
44	Uzbekistan		0.16	0.14	0.14	0.10	0.04
45	Trinidad		0.12	0.12	0.10	0.07	0.02
46	Romania		0.12	0.11	0.10	0.08	0.05
47	Italy		0.09	0.10	0.08	0.06	0.02
48	Peru		0.10	0.08	0.07	0.05	0.02
49	Ukraine		0.07	0.08	0.07	0.06	0.03
50	Germany		0.06	0.07	0.05	0.03	0.01
51	Tunisia		0.08	0.06	0.06	0.04	0.02
52	Cameroon		0.09	0.06	0.04	0.02	0.00
53	Pakistan		0.04	0.05	0.04	0.03	0.01
54	Papua		0.07	0.05	0.04	0.03	0.01
55	Netherlands		0.03	0.04	0.03	0.02	0.01
56	Turkey		0.06	0.04	0.03	0.02	0.01
57	Sharjah		0.05	0.04	0.03	0.02	0.00
58	Bolivia		0.03	0.03	0.04	0.05	0.02
59	Bahrain		0.03	0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00
60	Hungary		0.03	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.01
61	France		0.03	0.02	0.02	0.01	0.00
62	Croatia		0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.01
63	Austria		0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.00
64	Chile		0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00
65	Albania		0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01
	Regular Oil by Region						Mb/d
		2000		2005	2010	2020	2050
	ME Gulf	18.5		19	19	17	9
	Eurasia	11.1		14	15	9	3
	N.America	5.5		4.5	3.3	1.8	0.3
	L.America	8.0		6.9	5.7	3.8	1.4
	Africa	6.7		7.4	7.1	5.0	1.8
	Europe	6.3		5.0	3.6	1.8	0.3
	Far East	4.0		3.5	2.8	1.7	0.4
	ME Other	2.9		2.6	1.9	1.1	0.2
	Other	0.5		0.6	0.6	0.4	0.1
	Unforeseen			0.0	0.0	0.1	2.2
	Non-MEGulf	45		45	40	25	9
	MEGulf Share	29%		30%	33%	41%	51%
	WORLD	64		65	60	42	19
	Excl. bitumen, heavy, deepwater, polar, NGL
	Other Liquid Hydrocarbons
	Oil						Mb/d
	Heavy Oils (#1)	1.4		2.6	3.4	4.3	5.7
	Canada	1.0		1.3	2.0	2.8	3.9
	Venezuela I	0.5		0.5	0.5	0.6	1.1
	Venezuela II	0.0		0.7	0.7	0.7	0.2
	Other	0.0		0.2	0.2	0.3	0.5
	Deepwater (#2)	1.3		5.6	8.4	3.8	0.1
	G. Mexico	0.7		2.0	2.1	0.9	0
	Brazil	0.6		1.5	1.8	0.8	0
	Angola	0.0		0.8	2.2	0.7	0
	Nigeria	0.0		0.5	1.4	0.4	0
	Other	0.0		0.8	1.0	1.0	0.1
	Polar	1.0		0.9	0.9	2.1	0.4
	Alaska	1.0		0.8	0.6	0.4	0.1
	Other	0.0		0.1	0.3	1.7	0.3
	Other (#3)	0.0		0.1	0.3	0.5	1.0
	Subtotal	4		9	13	11	7
	Gas & Gas Liquids			(Gas at 6cf=1boe)
	Gas	39		45	53	59	36
	Non-con gas	1		2	2	4	10
	Subtotal	41		47	55	64	46
	Gas Liquids
	NGL (#4)	6		8	9	11	6
	All Hydrocarbons
	Gas	41		47	55	64	46
	Liquids	74		82	82	64	33
	Processing Gain	1.5		1.6	1.6	1.3	0.7
	Total	116		131	139	129	79
	Balance	with 1.5% annual demand growth
	Liquids Mb/d
	Supply	75		84	84	65	33
	Demand	75		81	87	101	158
	Balance	0		3	-3	-36	-125
	NOTES
	Regular Oil includes condensate (in oilfields)
	Production number for 2000, Oil&Gas Journal
	(#1) Bitumen, Extra-Heavy Oil, Heavy Oil (<17.5)
	(#2) Oil in water depth of more than 500m
	(#3) Oil from oil-shales, coal
	(#4) Liquids from Natural Gas plants & gasfields
	Base Case Scenario assumes negligible spare
	capacity with decline at current or midpoint depletion
	rate
	ME-Gulf = A.Dhabi, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, NZ, S.Arabia
	Eurasia= FSU, E.Europe & China
	N.America = USA & Canada
	Venezuela I = ordinary heavy
	Venezuela II = 4 Extra-Heavy oil projects
	Year 2000 from Oil&Gas Journal