Peer-reviewed

Field size distributions in three Petroleum Systems have been analyzed using different approaches. The parabolic fractal model shows the Niger delta and the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) have similar dispersed habitats, in contrast to the Saharan Triassic, which has a concentrated habitat. On a lognormal model, the Niger delta and the Saharan Triassic field size distributions are similar, being almost linear and coinciding. However, field sizes in the GOM OCS lie on a curved and very different plot. Using a stretched exponential model, all are different but close to linear. Evidently a single model does not adequately represent the complexity of field size distribution, and several should be used.

Published in: Marine and Petroleum Geology, Volume 17, Issue 4, 1 April 2000, Pages 539-546
Available from: ScienceDirect

Unconstrained CO2 emission from fossil fuel burning has been the dominant cause of observed anthropogenic global warming. The amounts of “proven” and potential fossil fuel reserves are uncertain and debated. Regardless of the true values, society has flexibility in the degree to which it chooses to exploit these reserves, especially unconventional fossil fuels and those located in extreme or pristine environments. If conventional oil production peaks within the next few decades, it may have a large effect on future atmospheric CO2 and climate change, depending upon subsequent energy choices. Assuming that proven oil and gas reserves do not greatly exceed estimates of the Energy Information Administration, and recent trends are toward lower estimates, we show that it is feasible to keep atmospheric CO2 from exceeding about 450 ppm by 2100, provided that emissions from coal, unconventional fossil fuels, and land use are constrained. Coal-fired power plants without sequestration must be phased out before midcentury to achieve this CO2 limit. It is also important to “stretch” conventional oil reserves via energy conservation and efficiency, thus averting strong pressures to extract liquid fuels from coal or unconventional fossil fuels while clean technologies are being developed for the era “beyond fossil fuels”. We argue that a rising price on carbon emissions is needed to discourage conversion of the vast fossil resources into usable reserves, and to keep CO2 beneath the 450 ppm ceiling.

Published in: Global Biochemical Cycles, Vol 22, 2008
Available from: AGU

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Published in: Energy Exploration & Exploitation, Volume 20, Number 6, 1 December 2002 , pp. 437-443(7)
Available from: IngentaConnect

Not available

Published in: Energy Exploration & Exploitation, Volume 20, Number 6, 1 December 2002 , pp. 445-449(5)
Available from: IngentaConnect

Seen from a Middle Eastern perspective, the present global oil situation can be summarised within five major and inescapable trends:

1 The world's super giant and giant oil fields are dying off;

2 There are no more major frontier regions left to explore besides the earth's poles;

3 Production of non-conventional crude oil has been initiated at great costs - in Venezuela's Orinoco belt, Canada's Athabasca tar sands and ultra-deep waters;

4 Even OPEC's oil production has its limits;

5 No major primary energy rival can possibly take over from oil and gas in the medium term.

Adding up these five trends, one can envision a global oil crunch at the horizon - most probably within the present decade. Unfortunately, however, the general public will not heed such a rational vision. And, even if it did, it would be loath to respond to the implied threat. In its defence, it should be said that many actors are constantly and consistently reassuring it: the press (even parts of the specialised press), most politicians, some international institutions, a couple of major oil companies and naturally OPEC. But this can only last until petrol stations post 'empty', natural gas supplies are suddenly shunted and, eventually, the lights go off.

Published in: Energy Exploration & Exploitation, Volume 20, Number 6, 1 December 2002 , pp. 451-455(5)
Available from: IngentaConnect

Not available

Published in: Energy Exploration & Exploitation, Volume 20, Number 6, 1 December 2002 , pp. 481-491(11)
Available from: IngentaConnect

Not available

Published in: Energy Exploration & Exploitation, Volume 20, Number 6, 1 December 2002 , pp. 457-479(23)
Available from: IngentaConnect
Also available from: www.Hubbertpeak.com

Oil provides some 40% of the world’s energy needs and as much as 90% of its transport fuel. It also has a critical role in agriculture, which provides food for the world’s population of six billion people. It is however a finite commodity, having been formed in the geological past, which means that it is subject to depletion. Given that it is of such great importance to the modern world, it is indeed surprising that more attention has not been given to determining the status of depletion.

There are several possible explanations for this strange state of affairs.

First, it is counter-intuitive. The weekly trip to the filling station is such a normal part of daily life that most people see a continued supply of oil as being as much a part of nature as are the rivers that flow from the mountains to the sea.

Second, depletion is strangely foreign to classical economics, which depict Man as the master of his environment under ineluctable laws of supply and demand. Never before have resource constraints of such a critical commodity begun to appear without sign of a better substitute or market signals. The absence of early market warning is due to expropriations that have obscured the natural trends that would otherwise have alerted us to growing shortages and rising costs. Tax by both consuming and producing countries has furthermore distorted the position. A related issue is a blind faith in technology, as epitomised by the dictum “the scientists will think of something”. Unfortunately, if they do, they will simply deplete the remaining oil faster.

Published in: Energy Exploration & Exploitation, Volume 20, Number 6, 1 December 2002 , pp. 407-435(29)
Available from: IngentaConnect

This paper elaborates a two-class growth model with an exhaustible resource (“oil”) and an alternative technique (“solar”). Bequest savers accumulate wealth, consisting of capital and oil, saving a constant fraction of their end-of-period wealth. The price of oil obeys Hotelling’s rule. Rising oil prices and the depletion of oil supplies create portfolio effects on the accumulation of capital. When growth is constrained by an exogenously increasing labor force, these wealth effects express themselves in changes in the distribution of income, which first shifts toward profits and then shifts back toward wages as the oil stocks approach depletion. When growth is constrained by capital (the labor force is endogenous), the portfolio effects express themselves in changes in the rate of capital accumulation, which first declines and then rises sharply as the oil stocks approach depletion.

Published in: Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Volume 18, Issue 2, June 2007, Pages 212-230
Available from: ScienceDirect

Oil, which plays an important role in modern industrial society, is a finite mineral resource being consumed at an ever increasing rate. This paper considers the general nature of oil occurrences, and examines the whereabouts of existing oil reserves and the rates at which they have been found. It also considers estimates of likely future reserves and how these compare with apparent demand. Brief mention is made of the alternatives to conventional crude oil. The conclusion is reached that we are likely to be dependent on conventional crude oil for a few decades and that the likely available world reserves may prove inadequate to allow continued expansion of our rates of off-take for more than another ten years or so. Alternatives are available but the implications of extra cost will have serious repercussions on the economics and social patterns of our society.

Published in: The Geographical Journal, Vol. 138, No. 3 (Sep., 1972), pp. 287-297
Available from: JSTOR