Peer-reviewed

The Hubbert linearization and normalizations for the rate of change of production have been used to depict the trends of oil production via the logistic and Gompertz models. Estimated cumulative production based upon the Hubbert linearization of the oil history indicates a total ultimately recoverable resource (URR) for all liquids of 2.6 terabarrels (Tb). The Gompertz URR is projected to be near 4 Tb for all liquids including non-traditional sources. The normalization of the change of rate of oil production to the rate of production shows a peak potential of 95 million barrels production per day based on the projected URR of 2.6 Tb. The United States Geological Survey estimate of 2.5 Tb URR most closely approximates the projected 2.6 Tb URR.

Published in: Energy Sources, Part B: Economics, Planning, and Policy, Volume 7, Issue 2, January 2012, Pages 162-168
Available from: Taylor & Francis

Due to its strategic location, Cyprus has been coveted by various external powers throughout its history. Today shipping routes for oil and competition for control of potential chokepoints make European powers, Turkey, and others very involved with that island country.

Published in: MERIA (Middle East Reviews of International Affairs), Volume 15, Issue 4
Available from: Gloria Center

The geological coal resource of the U.S. is abundant and proved coal reserves are listed as the world’s largest. However, the reserves are unevenly distributed and located in a small number of states, giving them major influence over future production. A long history of coal mining provides detailed time series of production and reserve estimates, which can be used to identify historical trends. In reviewing the historical evolution of coal reserves, one can state that the trend here does not point towards any major increases in available recoverable reserves; rather the opposite is true due to restrictions and increased focus on environmental impacts from coal extraction. Future coal production will not be entirely determined by what is geologically available, but rather by the fraction of that amount that is practically recoverable. Consequently, the historical trend towards reduced recoverable amounts is likely to continue into the future, with even stricter regulations imposed by increased environmental concern.

Long-term outlooks can be created in many ways, but ultimately the production must be limited by recoverable volumes since coal is a finite resource. The geologic amounts of coal are of much less importance to future production than the practically recoverable volumes. The geological coal supply might be vast, but the important question is how large the share that can be extracted under present restrictions are and how those restrictions will develop in the future. Production limitations might therefore appear much sooner than previously expected.

Published in: Natural Resources Research, Volume 19, Issue 3, September 2010, Pages 189-208
Available from: Global Energy Systems or SpringerLink

As China’ largest oilfield, Daqing is of great importance to China. This paper analyzes the status of the Daqing oilfield and forecasts its ultimate recoverable reserves by use of the URR model. The forecast results are presented for three scenarios which show that the ultimate recoverable reserves in Daqing oilfield are 3574.0 million tons in the optimistic scenario, 3169.3 million in the base case scenario and 3033.3 million in the pessimistic scenario, respectively. A system dynamics model is established and the quantitative relationships between variables in the model are determined. Total oil production, remaining recoverable reserves, annual newly discovered reserves, and the degree of reserves recovery before 2060 are simulated under the three scenarios by use of the system dynamics model. The forecast results show that the future oil production in Daqing oilfield will continue declining, under the base case scenario, from 41.6 million tons in 2007 to 8.0 million tons in 2060. For Chinese policy-makers, it is worth paying attention to the problem of whether oil production in new oilfields can effectively make up for the decline in production of the large, old oilfields.

Published in: Energy, Volume 35, Issue 7, July 2010, Pages 3097-3102
Available from: Global Energy Systems or ScienceDirect

This study reviews a variety of growth curve models and the theoretical frameworks that lay behind them. In many systems, growth patterns are, or must, ultimately be subjected to some form of limitation. A number of curve models have been developed to describe and predict such behaviours. Symmetric growth curves have frequently been used for forecasting fossil fuel production, but others have expressed a need for more flexible and asymmetric models.

A number of examples show differences and applications of various growth curve models. It is concluded that these growth curve models can be utilised as forecasting tools, but are do not necessarily provide better predictions than any other method. Consequently, growth curve models and other forecasting methods should be used together to provide a triangulated forecast. urthermore, the growth curve methodology offers a simple tool for resource management to determine what might happen to future production if resource availability poses a problem. In the light of peak oil and the awareness of natural resources as a basis for the continued well-being of society and mankind, resource management should be an important factor in future social planning.

Published in: Natural Resources Research, Volume 20, Issue 2, June 2011, Pages 103-116
Available from: Global Energy Systems or SpringerLink

The depletion of the world oil resource based upon the logistic function has been updated and fitted to the recent history of oil production. The analysis uses data through the year 2009 and further introduces the asymmetric Gompertz function in order to account for additional oil resources. Results of these calculations depict a range of production rates under different resource limits. The characteristic curvature coefficients and the peak years of production are fitted to United States Geological Survey estimates of ultimately recoverable resource (URR) limits between 2.5 and 4.5 terabarrels (TB). The logistic fittings yield peak productions from 30.4 to 38.6 gigabarrels per year (GB/yr) for URRs from 2.5 to 3.0 TB in years 2008 through 2016. The lower probability of occurrence URRs (from 4.0 to 4.5 TB) inclusive of forms of oils yet to be introduced yield peak productions from 30.9 to 33.5 GB/yr during the years 2018 through 2023. The Gompertz function is used as the model for the lower probability URR production.

Published in: Energy Sources, Part B: Economics, Planning, and Policy, Volume 6, Issue 2, Pages 178–186
Available from: Informaworld

Mass international tourism has thrived on the abundant and cheap supply of energy, and this may be about to change as the world moves towards “Peak Oil”. The resultant scarcity and high price of all energy fuels will produce changes in human activities across the board, and specifically in tourism. In this looming transitional era, which has probably already arrived, tourism needs to make some dramatic changes to harmonize with the new realities of a post-energy world and its new society.

Published in: Tourismos, Volume 6, Issue 1,
Available from: Tourismos

The specific distribution of hydrocarbon field sizes has a deep impact on the dynamics of the production inside a basin. This paper proposes a probabilistic model based on the field size distribution, taking into account the launching production process of the fields. This model can be seen as a ‘bottom-up’ probabilistic method to simulate and predict oil production. The asymptotic results obtained allow us to propose relevant fitting to real production curves.

Published in: Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry, article in press
Available from: Wiley Online Library or see below

In 1956, M. King Hubbert, chief consultant for the Shell Development Company's exploration and production research division, forecasted that U.S. oil production would peak in the early 1970s. He subsequently updated this prediction using newer data, but the predicted timing of peaking did not change significantly (see Hubbert [1982] for a review and references to earlier papers). In 1971, U.S. annual production of crude oil peaked at slightly more than three billion barrels (bbl). Yet, Hubbert's model continues to be challenged by some. For instance, according to economist Michael Lynch, president of Strategic Energy and Economic Research, Inc., Winchester, Mass., it was only after Hubbert published his predictions “that the Hubbert curve came to be seen as explanatory in and of itself, that is, geology requires that production should follow such a curve” [Lynch, 2003].

Published in: EOS (Transactions American Geophysical Union), Volume 87, Issue 20, May 2006, Pages 199-219
Available from: American Geophysical Union

The world passed the halfway point of oil supply in 2005. World demand for oil likely will severely outstrip supply in 2008, leading to increasingly higher oil prices. Consequences are likely to include increasing gasoline prices, rapidly increasing inflation, and subsequently a series of increasingly severe recessions followed by a worldwide economic depression. Consequences may include, particularly in industrialized countries such as the United States, massive unemployment, economic collapse, and chaos.

Published in: Bulletin of Science, Technology & Society, Volume 28, Issue 3, May 2008, Pages 187-191
Available from: http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0270467608316098