World oil supply-what goes up must come down, but when will it peak?

The universe is made up of cycles. Everything that is born will die: stars, days, species, humans, and civilizations. A stone thrown into the air follows a parabolic trajectory. If its velocity is more than 11 km/sec it will leave the gravitational field of the earth but will become part of the solar system, returning on an elliptic orbit. What goes up must come down. The question is: when will it peak?

King Hubbert, in his famous paper of 1956, predicted that U.S. oil production (from the Lower 48) would peak in the 1970s at the top of a bell-curve. The area of the curve represented the total endowment of oil, which he estimated at 200 billion bbl. He was vilified at the time as being a pessimist but was amply vindicated when the country's production indeed did peak in 1970.

Published in: Oil & Gas Journal February 01, 1999, volume 97, issue 5
Available from: Oil & Gas Journal