Updated Hubbert curves analyze world oil supply

The question is not whether, but when, world crude oil production will start to decline, ushering in the permanent oil shock era. While global information for predicting this event is not so straightforward as the data M. King Hubbert used in creating his famous Hubbert Curve that predicted the US (Lower 48 states, or US/48) 1970 oil production peak, there are strong indications that most of the world`s large exploration targets have now been found. Meanwhile, the earth`s population is exploding along with the oil needs of Asia`s developing nations. This article reviews Hubbert`s original analyses on oil discovery and production curves for the US/48 and projects his proven methodology onto global oil discoveries and production as of 1992. The world`s oil discovery curve peaked in 1962, and thence declined, as a Hubbert Curve predicts. However, global production was restricted after the 1973 Arab oil embargo. Otherwise, world production would have peaked in the mid-1990s. Two graphs show alternate versions of future global oil production.