Uninvited observations

I understand that the Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas (ASPO) will not always be invited to speak at CERA Week (Cambridge Energy Research Associates annual conference in Houston), but if I had been invited I could have discussed the CERA 2006 forecast of future oil production (Journal of Petroleum Technology, February 2007).

CERA’s prediction is divided into conventional and unconventional oil, and if we sum the CERA-predicted crude oil consumption to 2070 we get a number in the region of 2,000 billion bbl, twice as much as has been consumed to date. Production of 70 million b/d in 2070 requires reserves of the orderof 500 billion bbl, and current crude oil reserves are 800 billion bbl. Adding the numbers, 500 billion bbl plus 2,000 billion bbl, less 800 billion bbl, we arrive at a figure of 1,700 billion bbl. This is the amount of oil that must be found and developed during the next 62 years, or 27 billion bbl/year. For these figures to work the oil industry needs to get out and start looking for oil like crazy...

Published in: Oil & Gas Journal, March 03, 2008, volume 106, issue 9
Available from: Oil & Gas Journal Online