Techniques of prediction with application to the petroleum industry

Current industry data suggest that the total initial quantity of crude oil (whether producible or not) accumulated in reservoirs in the United States, excluding Alaska, was of the order of 350-500 billion barrels, and that the initial reserves of natural gas were about 800-1,200 trillion cubic feet. American Petroleum Institute data indicate that since 1925 production of crude oil in the United States has lagged discovery and development by the nearly constant amount of 10-11 years. Discovery is thus a preview of production by approximately this period. The peak of discovery and development of crude oil occurred about 1952-1953, which suggests that the peak of production should occur 10-11 years later. The peak of estimated proved reserves, which should occur about halfway between the peaks of discovery and production, actually was reached late in 1957.

Comparable data for natural gas suggest that the peak of production should not be reached before 1970, or shortly thereafter.

Published in: 44th Annual Meeting of the American Association of Petroleum Geologists. Shell Development Company, Dallas, TX, p. 43.
Available from: AAPG or Hubbertpeak