Reserve driven forecasts for oil, gas and coal and limits in carbon dioxide emissions

The increase of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere is coursed by an increasing use of fossil fuels; natural gas, oil and coal. This have so far resulted in an increas of the global surface temperature in the order of one degree.

In the year 2000 IPCC, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, released 40 emission scenarios that can be seen as images of the future, or alternative futures. They are neither prediction, nor forecasts and actual reserves have not been a limited factor, just the fossil energy resource base.

This paper is based on realistic reserve assessments, and CO2 emissions from resources that cannot be transformed into reserves are not allowed. First we can conclude that CO2 emissions from burning oil and gas are lower what all the IPCC scenarios predict, and emissions from coal is much lower than than the majority of the scenarios.

IPCC emission scenarios for the time period of 2020 to 2100 should in the future not be used for climate change predictions. It is time to use realistic scenarios.

Full report available from:
OECD International Transport Forum