Peak Oil Paradigm Shift

Review by Gary F. Bennet:
One of the slides I used in my speeches contained the line, “A genius is someone who shoots at a target he cannot see and hits the bullseye.” The author of this book has done that. Indeed, as I write, the United States is trying to recover from the ravages of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita and the impact that they and other events have had on the supply and price of oil. As a result of the problems caused by them, gasoline prices have risen sharply in North America with the public placing the blame on avaricious oil companies as they await (hopefully) for relief at the gasoline pumps. There may be some price reductions coming in the short run, but in the long run, the author comes out with a resounding, “No!”

Oil production, Abdullah writes, has peaked and the worldwide supply of oil will continue to decrease with time. Unfortunately, demand will not. Indeed, demand for oil will increase, especially in developing nations such as China. The author presents information through excellent graphs showing a bell-shaped curve for oil production as a function of time. The peak of this curve is very close to the present time with decreasing productions being shown soon. Another graph has no peak as Abdullah predicts worldwide energy consumption for the various fuel sources.

Other sources of energy are also reviewed. Natural gas shows a similar fate to oil.

Hydrogen as a replacement for oil is discussed. However, the author notes: “One of the biggest falsehoods being promised is that hydrogen can easily be substituted for oil and natural gas as a transportation fuel. It has often been pointed out that a virtually inexhaustible supply of water exists from which hydrogen can be derived. However, the reaction that converts water to hydrogen and oxygen requires a substantial energy investment per unit of water. This energy investment is required by elementary principles of chemistry and can never be reduced.”

The author goes on to note that: “It takes 1.3 Kilo-Watt an Hour of electricity to produce hydrogen with an energy value of 1 Kilo-Watt Hour. Hydrogen from electrolysis is therefore an energy ‘carrier’ not a ‘source’ of energy like oil.”

Ethanol as an energy carrier is also discussed. Abdullah says that it takes 71% more energy to produce ethanol than the product supplies. While I cannot vouch for the 71% figure, I can agree with his assertion that there is a net energy loss in the production of ethanol. Many years ago when I was actively teaching, I began my biochemical engineering course with a discussion of ethanol production and ended the lecture with a note that there was a negative output of energy in ethanol production. The author's discussion of energy production versus consumption did not even include the agricultural energy use in grain production. The scenario is more favorable, however, in Brazil, the author notes, where ethanol is produced from sugar cane rather than from corn. “In Brazil, the cost of ethanol over the entire cycle of production, including farming, transportation and distribution is about 63 cents per gallon, which is substantially lower than the current world prices for gasoline.” However, the author's discussion only focuses on cost, not energy utilization.

In the past, I have not been a keen supporter of wind and solar power for energy production but reading this book changed my perspective on these power sources. While both sources of energy are still expensive and weather-dependent, they do supply energy from a renewable source.

Regarding solar power, Abdullah writes: “Harvesting energy from the sun can be accomplished using a range of methodologies with widely varying degrees of technological sophistication. An example of low-tech solar energy would be simple flat plate collector used in many domestic water heaters, which can provide 50% to 100% of a family's hot water requirements depending on location, demand and other factors.”

Nuclear power plants are also discussed as an energy source. Unfortunately, the author notes, “It is also estimated that the world's uranium reserves would only last about 25 years if an attempt is made to aggressively replace oil and natural gas with nuclear power for electricity generation.” Nuclear power also suffers from extremely high cost of construction as well as the public concern for the long-term radioactive waste residual storage.

The book ends on a pessimistic note (made very real by the current oil crisis of mid-2005). The author writes: “It is unlikely that all the world's governments will respond effectively to the looming crises, but this only makes it more urgent for those nations, communities and individuals who recognize Peak Oil as having a fundamental influence on their future to act swiftly and resolutely to prepare for the changed circumstances that will result when Cheap Oil runs out … IN THE NEAR FUTURE!”

Available from: Amazon Online