Oil Use and Economic Development in Sub-Saharan Africa

A GDP growth of 7% has been suggested as a target to combat the current economic
underdevelopment of sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Historically, such rapid economic
growth has not occurred without a simultaneous increase in energy use. Economic
activity presupposes the use of energy, since energy is the capacity to do physical
work. Of the commercial energy forms available, oil is of strategic importance for SSA
due to its versatility, energy density and low infrastructural requirements. Recent
surges in the world oil price have therefore resulted in serious hardships for many
countries in SSA. Oil is particularly difficult to replace within the transport sector,
which is the largest user.

This study presents two oil use scenarios for SSA given a 7% GDP growth 2008-2030.
With no increase in the efficiency of oil use relative to GDP, consumption will
increase from 1 million barrels per day in 2004 to 4.8 Mb/d in 2030. Assuming the
most efficient oil use that appears reasonable in the light of past trends in relevant
reference countries, consumption will still amount to 3.5 Mb/d by 2030. When put in
relation to oil production scenarios for SSA, the conclusion is that the net export of
oil cannot be maintained at the high level that major oil consuming nations expect, if
SSA is to have a high GDP growth. Particularly in the context of a future global oil
production peak, this result has serious implications for the economic prospects of
SSA.

Available from: http://www.tsl.uu.se/uhdsg/Publications/Jakobsson_Thesis.pdf