Modeling the estimation of petroleum resources in the United States

Estimates of ultimate recoverable petroleum resources in the lower 48 states have increased since 1910, but peaked in the 1960s and have since declined by over 50%. The apparent tendency of the estimates to overshoot their targets raises questions about the rationality and utility of estimation strategies. This paper describes a simulation-based study of the petroleum life cycle in the United States undertaken to evaluate different resource estimation techniques. Protocols for the Hubbert life cycle and USGS geologic analogy methods are developed and applied to synthetic data generated by the simulation model. It is shown that the Hubbert method is quite accurate, with a tendency to underestimate the ultimate recoverable resource somewhat, while the simulated geologic analogy estimates overshoot the resource base quite dramatically. Analysis of the model pinpoints the sources of error and suggests way to improve resource estimation strategies.

Published in: Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 33, Issue 3, May 1988, Pages 219-249
Available from: ScienceDirect