What is Peak oil?
"The term Peak Oil refers to the maximum rate of the production of oil in any area under consideration, recognising that it is a finite natural resource, subject to depletion."
--Colin Campbell
Long term prediction of unconventional oil production
Publication date:
2010-01-01
First published in:
Energy Policy
Abstract:
Although considerable discussion surrounds unconventional oil's ability to mitigate the effects of peaking conventional oil production, very few models of unconventional oil production exist. The aim of this article was to project unconventional oil production to determine how significant its production may be. Two models were developed to predict the unconventional oil production, one model for in situ production and the other for mining the resources. Unconventional oil production is anticipated to reach between 18 and 32 Gb/y (49–88 Mb/d) in 2076–2084, before declining. If conventional oil production is at peak production then projected unconventional oil production cannot mitigate peaking of conventional oil alone.
Published in: Energy Policy, Volume 38, Issue 1, January 2010, Pages 265-276
Available from: ScienceDirect
