Learn strengths, weaknesses to understand Hubbert curve

M. King Hubbert was a distinguished scientist published on many aspects of petroleum geology, but he is most remembered for his 1956 work on forecasting production in which he introduced a special bell curve that bears his name. Hubbert was also remarkable for his interest in the social implications of resource depletion.

In 1974,1 he presented several production curves for the world and the US but was somewhat reticent in explaining the mathematical basis of his work. He referred to a bell-shaped curve, of which the most commonly used are the normal or Gauss curve, and also to the derivative of the logistic curve,2 but he gave no equations. He based his study on ultimate recovery, taking 170 billion bbl for the US and low cases and high cases for the world of 1,350 billion bbl and 2,100 billion bbl, respectively.

His initial study concerned the US Lower 48 states, which had a single cycle of continuous exploration in a large number of basins. He referred also to the relationship between discovery and production. The discovery cycle peaked in the late 1930s and was followed by a corresponding production cycle peaking around 1970.

But as explained below not all countries are characterized by a single discovery cycle; other constraints to the Hubbert model need to be better understood. It is to be noted in particular that the model is a symmetrical curve, whereas the production curve of an individual field is generally asymmetrical. As discussed below, the Hubbert curve is in fact the derivative of a logistic curve.

Published in: Oil & Gas Journal April 17, 2000, volume 98, issue 16
Available from: Oil & Gas Journal