Analysis of World Oil Production Based on the Fitting of the Logistic Function and its Derivatives

Logistic functions were used to model the depletion of the uniform resource for the case of world oil production. Results are presented for various curve fits in order to determine the value of parameters that best match the historical record of world oil production. Calculations depict a range of resource limits, namely the ultimately recoverable resource (URR) and the peak year of production (PY) for both assumed URR (two parameter) models and variable URR (three parameter) models. Logistic fitting yields a minimum URR estimate of 1.3 terabarrels (TB) and a maximum of 5.2 terabarrels. The peak production years fall between the years 1989 and 2027. Probable values of URR based on the confluence of the logistic URR trend lines yields an estimate of 2.2 or 2.8 TB corresponding to peak production during year 2004 or year 2011, respectively.

Published in: Energy Sources, Part B: Economics, Planning, and Policy, Volume 2, Issue 4 October 2007 , pages 421 - 428
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