An Oil Crisis is Probably Imminent

Several studies and much data available on the internet indicate that there is a strong likelihood that the world is about to enter an era when oil becomes scarce and oil prices increase significantly. Well over half of all oil produced in the world is used as transportation fuel. Oil is the primary source of transportation fuel for almost all forms of transportation – cars, trucks, trains, ships and aircraft. It is also essential for a wide range of petrochemical products that we use every day. An oil crisis will have a profound effect on the developed and developing world economies. Not only will transportation fuel costs increase dramatically, but the cost of all goods and services dependent on transportation will rise dramatically. This problem is further complicated in that development and exploitation of potential alternative fuels should not exacerbate pollution and the global warming problem.

This report identifies and summarizes several previous studies and government reports. It also presents and discusses available data and the results of the author’s additional analysis of the available data. Based on this data and analysis the author believes that this problem is real and that the era of very expensive oil may have already started.

This report also identifies and discusses potential alternative transportation fuel sources. The U.S. Government and private industry apparently recognized, starting in the Reagan administration, that an oil crisis will occur in the foreseeable future and have provided research funding for many alternative fuels. While some of the research is proving fruitful, it appears that there are no near-term alternatives to oil-based fuels that can immediately step in and alleviate the problem. Neither the Government nor the press has publicized this as a major issue.

The objective of this report is to alert people to the probability of an imminent oil crisis. This will allow them to make their own decisions regarding the likelihood of such a crisis and to plan for how best to cope with the issue.