Academic theses

The UK faces long term challenges to the reliability of its energy supplies, arising from a
combination of domestic resource depletion, subsequent dependence on eroding global raw
fuel reserves, poor infrastructure investment and worsening weather. This study evaluates the
readiness of UK companies for such disruption.

The literature suggests that the approach to business continuity planning is not taking
account of these emergent risks and thus companies are unprepared. Selected UK businesses
were asked for their views on business continuity planning. This information gathering
comprised both qualitative and quantitative information obtained through questionnaire and
interviews.

It was found that whilst most companies in the study had measures in place that would provide a degree of protection, there were shortfalls in their approach to risk assessment
which meant emergent risks were not captured or mitigated against. To alleviate these vulnerabilities, it is recommended that the UK government become more proactive in communicating emergent risks and that companies review their risk assessment approach and take appropriate action to ensure that protective measures are implemented and risks are regularly reviewed.

Published in: Liverpool University, master of business administration thesis
Available from: See attachment below

This study addresses several questions concerning the peaking of conventional oil production from an optimist's perspective. Is the oil peak imminent? What is the range of uncertainty? What are the key determining factors? Will a transition to unconventional oil undermine or strengthen OPEC's influence over world oil markets?

These issues are explored using a model combining alternative world energy scenarios with an accounting of resource depletion and a market-based simulation of transition to unconventional oil resources. No political or environmental constraints are allowed to hinder oil production, geological constraints on the rates at which oil can be produced are not represented, and when USGS resource estimates are used, more than the mean estimate of ultimately recoverable resources is assumed to exist.

The issue is framed not as a question of “running out” of conventional oil, but in terms of the timing and rate of transition from conventional to unconventional oil resources. Unconventional oil is chosen because production from Venezuela's heavy-oil fields and Canada's Athabascan oil sands is already underway on a significant scale and unconventional oil is most consistent with the existing infrastructure for producing, refining, distributing and consuming petroleum. However, natural gas or even coal might also prove to be economical sources of liquid hydrocarbon fuels.

These results indicate a high probability that production of conventional oil from outside of the Middle East region will peak, or that the rate of increase of production will become highly constrained before 2025. If world consumption of hydrocarbon fuels is to continue growing, massive development of unconventional resources will be required. While there are grounds for pessimism and optimism, it is certainly not too soon for extensive, detailed analysis of transitions to alternative energy sources.

Published in: Energy Policy, Volume 34, Issue 5, March 2006, Pages 515-531
Available from: ScienceDirect

The catch-word of the day is Sustainability. It’s been used so much lately that it has become legitimate to preface any discussion about it by stating that the term itself has become depleted. On the other hand, if we set limitations on our future that are specific and concrete, sustainability becomes something other than a diffuse goal. Suddenly it is not just a distant somewhere or a sometime – but instead a Something that is generated en passant, in the process of attempting to solve an acute problem at hand.

During the year of 2007, the world has experienced historically high oil prices both in nominal and in real terms, which has reopened discussions about energy sustainability. We therefore found it interesting to research oil dependencies and elasticities for Brazil, China, Norway, South Korea, Sweden and USA; and their possible oil consumption response to a Peak Oil phenomenon. Peak Oil in this thesis, implies that oil production will reach its climax and decline thereafter. To help draw conclusions, appropriate statistical analysis on macroeconomic variables was used as well as the modified Nerlove’s partial adjustment equation to calculate price and income elasticities both in the short and long-run. Regression results have shown that short-run price elasticities were low in all countries; in addition income elasticities were also inelastic but more elastic in relation to oil price elasticities. This indicates that oil consumption is more sensitive to changes in income than to changes in oil price. It was concluded that oil dependencies among nations differ and the trend is that developing countries are increasing their oil dependency while developed countries tend to decrease their oil dependency over time. Peak Oil will lead to higher oil prices, which in the short-run will change developing countries oil consumption to a greater extent than developed countries, but in the long-run their response are more similar. It was also noticed, that when GDP decreases in net-oil-importing countries, oil consumption will decrease even further. The opposite could be true for net-oil-exporting countries like Norway and Brazil.

Publication type: Undergraduate thesis C-level 10 p. (IHH, Economics)

Full thesis available from:
http://www.publ.hj.se/diva/abstract.xsql?dbid=1057

The topic of Peak Oil – the idea that the world is approaching a geologically constrained
maximum rate of oil production - has consumed me for the past two years. After Peak Oil is
reached, it will be impossible to maintain, much less increase, the world’s daily oil production
rate, no matter how much money and effort are thrown at the problem. Any growth in oil
demand in one region will have to be met by a reduction in consumption someplace else. The
consequences for our economic health and security will be profound at all levels – individual,
business, national and global. Business as usual will not be an option. Peak Oil signals the
beginning of a revolution to whatever Age is going to follow the Industrial Age. Interesting
times.
My interest in Peak Oil management is the logical outgrowth of more than 20 years
working as a geologist and project manager, followed by 10 years as a business manager and
university administrator. The more deeply I looked, the more I became convinced that the whole
Peak Oil issue needs to be framed as a strategic management problem. Here we are, facing a
situation where the decisions we make now, whether by informed choice or default, will
determine the kind of life available to us and our children 30 years down the road. Yet, there is
very little reliable public data on which to base decisions, almost no public discourse, and no
viable long-term national energy policy or planning. A manager’s job is to plan a course of
action and allocate available resources to achieve a desired outcome, often in the face of
incomplete or contradictory information. By that definition, Peak Oil is a quintessential
management problem.

ORIGINALLY SUBMITTED AS A MASTER’S THESIS TO THE FACULTY OF THE DIVISION OF
BUSINESS AND ACCOUNTING, MERCY COLLEGE IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE
REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION, MAY 2006

Available from: http://www.ldeo.columbia.edu/~odland/Odland_PeakOilMgt_Dissertation.pdf

Approximately 2000 billion barrels of conventional oil may ultimately be extracted. We have soon consumed half of it. Global oil production may peak around 2010. It is claimed that non-conventional oil production, including Canadian oil sands production, may bridge the coming gap between the world’s oil demand and global oil supply. In 2003 the oil sands reserves were included in Canada’s estimated proven reserves, thus increasing from 5 to 180 billion barrels. The objective of this report is to investigate and analyse the production of heavy oil/bitumen from Canada’s oil sands deposits and its future impact on global oil supply.

The report shows that the Canadian oil sands industry’s dependence on natural gas is unsustainable. Extensive use of bitumen for fuel and upgrading seems to be incompatible with Canada’s obligations under the Kyoto treaty.

The Canadian oil sands industry should be viewed as two separate forms of oil production, in situ production (similar to conventional oil production) and mining. The long-term future of the Canadian oil sands industry is the in situ production, although great uncertainty is associated with its potential.
If a massive effort is made to put the whole oil sands mining area into production, a plateau production and a following decline are expected for the oil sands mining industry. The declining oil sands mining production may cause a peak production for the Canadian oil sands industry as a whole, since it is uncertain if the in situ production may compensate for the declining mining activities.

The future Canadian oil sands production cannot even compensate for the combined declining conventional oil production in Canada and the North Sea. The most optimistic scenario will not manage to compensate the decline by 2030. Canada’s oil sands resources cannot prevent a global peak oil scenario.

Available from: http://www.tsl.uu.se/uhdsg/Publications/Soderbergh_Thesis.pdf

Our society today is very dependent on oil and gas, almost 65% of the total primary
energy consumption in the world is produced from oil and gas. Due to the vast
amounts of oil consumed every year, discussions occur regarding whether we will, or
will not, run out of oil in the future. Another topic of discussion is the amounts of CO2
emissions from the burning of fossil fuels. The purpose of this M.Sc. thesis work was,
firstly, to upgrade a substantial database on world oil and gas resources, including
annual discovery and production. An estimate is also made about how much more oil
and gas that will be discovered and produced. Secondly, the oil and gas production is
compared to the production predicted in IPCC’s 40 emissions scenarios.
The result from the updated database shows that the ultimate amount of crude oil to
be discovered in the world is 1900 Gigabarrels (Gb). Including the year 2002, 1713
Gb is already discovered, which leaves 187 Gb to be discovered in the future.
Furthermore, 891 Gb of crude oil had already been produced at the end of 2002,
which leaves 822 Gb to be produced in the future.

The result from the comparison between the updated database and IPCC’s oil
production numbers in their 40 emissions scenarios shows big anomalies. The whole
range of IPCC’s 40 scenarios on primary energy production from oil and gas between
1990 and 2100 is higher than what the updated database shows as possible. In most of
IPCC’s 40 scenarios the oil and gas consumption between 1990 and 2100 is more than
twice as large as what the updated database shows possible.

Note that the purpose of this M.Sc. project work is to quantify the resource base used
in the IPCC emissions scenarios, it does not evaluate whether climate change is, or
will be, a problem.

Available from: http://www.tsl.uu.se/uhdsg/Publications/Sivertsson_Thesis.pdf

A GDP growth of 7% has been suggested as a target to combat the current economic
underdevelopment of sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Historically, such rapid economic
growth has not occurred without a simultaneous increase in energy use. Economic
activity presupposes the use of energy, since energy is the capacity to do physical
work. Of the commercial energy forms available, oil is of strategic importance for SSA
due to its versatility, energy density and low infrastructural requirements. Recent
surges in the world oil price have therefore resulted in serious hardships for many
countries in SSA. Oil is particularly difficult to replace within the transport sector,
which is the largest user.

This study presents two oil use scenarios for SSA given a 7% GDP growth 2008-2030.
With no increase in the efficiency of oil use relative to GDP, consumption will
increase from 1 million barrels per day in 2004 to 4.8 Mb/d in 2030. Assuming the
most efficient oil use that appears reasonable in the light of past trends in relevant
reference countries, consumption will still amount to 3.5 Mb/d by 2030. When put in
relation to oil production scenarios for SSA, the conclusion is that the net export of
oil cannot be maintained at the high level that major oil consuming nations expect, if
SSA is to have a high GDP growth. Particularly in the context of a future global oil
production peak, this result has serious implications for the economic prospects of
SSA.

Available from: http://www.tsl.uu.se/uhdsg/Publications/Jakobsson_Thesis.pdf

Oil is a heavily used natural resource with a limited supply. Russia is one of the largest oil producers and the second largest oil exporting country in the world. Many surrounding countries are dependent on Russian energy. Swedish oil import from Russia has grown from 5% to 35% during 2001-2005.

The fall of the Soviet Union in 1991 caused the Russian oil production to drop by 50%. The production is currently growing again – but how will it develop in the future?

This report studies different scenarios for Russian oil production and export based on three different estimates of how much oil Russia has left today (70, 120 or 170 Gb), combined with estimates about how fast Russia can produce the oil (a depletion rate of 3%, 4.5% or 6%).

In the worst case, Russian oil production and also the oil export will peak very soon or has already done so in 2006. In the best case, a constant export can be held until 2036. It is not likely that the Russian production will increase more than 5-10% over today’s level.

Available from: http://www.tsl.uu.se/uhdsg/Publications/Aram_Thesis.pdf

Since the 1950s, oil has been the dominant source of energy in the world. The cheap supply of oil has been the engine for economic growth in the western world. Since future oil demand is expected to increase, the question to what extent future production will be available is important.

The belief in a soon peak production of oil is fueled by increasing oil prices. However, the reliability of the oil price as a single parameter can be questioned, as earlier times of high prices have occurred without having anything to do with a lack of oil. Instead, giant oil fields, the largest oil fields in the world, can be used as a parameter.

A giant oil field contains at least 500 million barrels of recoverable oil. Only 507, or 1 % of the total number of fields, are giants. Their contribution is striking: over 60 % of the 2005 production and about 65 % of the global ultimate recoverable reserve (URR).

However, giant fields are something of the past since a majority of the largest giant fields are over 50 years old and the discovery trend of less giant fields with smaller volumes is clear. A large number of the largest giant fields are found in the countries surrounding the Persian Gulf.

The domination of giant fields in global oil production confirms a concept where they govern future production. A model, based on past annual production and URR, has been developed to forecast future production from giant fields. The results, in combination with forecasts on new field developments, heavy oil and oil sand, are used to predict future oil production.

In all scenarios, peak oil occurs at about the same time as the giant fields peak. The worst-case scenario sees a peak in 2008 and the best-case scenario, following a 1.4 % demand growth, peaks in 2018.

Available from: Uppsala University