Academic theses

Humanity's dependence upon a reliable and easily obtainable supply of oil places the modern lifestyle in a precarious position. Will this source of energy always be readily available? At what point will global production of this resource peak and then thereafter begin an irreversible decline? What would be the consequences of a peak in global oil production? With the demand for oil continuing to rise over time, how will modern societies adapt if supply is unable to meet increasing demand? What policies will governments implement in an attempt to address these issues? This research project seeks to address these questions. A significant portion of this analysis is dedicated to assessing the merit of claims made regarding the existence of peak oil and the varying estimates as to its likely occurrence. Peak oil's potential effects on financial markets, modern transport, food prices, and international affairs are also explored, including a discussion of the ways to mitigate against these effects. The primary findings of this analysis are that peak oil is a real phenomenon, that it will likely occur in the not-too-distant future (if it has not already occurred), and that governments and communities should be implementing proactive policies to address peak oil otherwise it could result in severe ramifications for modern society.

Peak oil is a phenomenon that has received little mainstream attention even though the potential consequences of its untimely arrival could be considerable. Since peak oil challenges the status quo, peak oil's proponents have been subjected to an unfortunate backlash by established interests. It is hoped that this analysis will assist in bringing more attention and clarity to the issue. The better understanding that individuals and policymakers have of peak oil, the more likely it is that appropriate decisions will be made in preparation for the eventual end of the oil age.

This research project was defended on July 31, 2008, at Washington University in St. Louis.

Available from: See attachment below

Oil is the black blood that runs through the veins of the modern global energy system. While being the dominant source of energy, oil has also brought wealth and power to the western world. Future supply for oil is unsure or even expected to decrease due to limitations imposed by peak oil. Energy is fundamental to all parts of society. The enormous growth and development of society in the last two-hundred years has been driven by rapid increase in the extraction of fossil fuels. In the foresee-able future, the majority of energy will still come from fossil fuels. Consequently, reliable methods for forecasting their production, especially crude oil, are crucial. Forecasting crude oil production can be done in many different ways, but in order to provide realistic outlooks, one must be mindful of the physical laws that affect extraction of hydrocarbons from a reser-voir. Decline curve analysis is a long established tool for developing future outlooks for oil production from an individual well or an entire oilfield. Depletion has a fundamental role in the extraction of finite resources and is one of the driving mechanisms for oil flows within a reservoir. Depletion rate also can be connected to decline curves. Consequently, depletion analysis is a useful tool for analysis and forecasting crude oil production. Based on comprehensive databases with reserve and production data for hundreds of oil fields, it has been possible to identify typical behaviours and properties. Using a combination of depletion and decline rate analysis gives a better tool for describing future oil production on a field-by-field level. Reliable and reasonable forecasts are essential for planning and necessary in order to understand likely future world oil production.

Published in: Uppsala University, Licentiate thesis
Available from: Global Energy Systems

In this thesis future aviation fuel supply is compared to future aviation fuel demand. Most aviation fuels are jet fuels originating from crude oil. The crude oil must be refined to be useful and jet fuel is only one of many products that can be derived from crude oil. Jet fuel is extracted from the middle distillates fraction and competes, for example, with the production of diesel.

Crude oil is a limited natural resource subject to depletion and several reports indicate that the world's crude oil production is close to the maximum level and that it will start to decrease after reaching this maxima. On the other hand, it is predicted by the aviation industry that aviation traffic will keep on increasing. The industry has put up ambitious goals to increase fuel efficiency of the aviation fleet through better engines, better flying routes and better aerodynamics, but still the demand for aviation fuel would grow. Traffic is predicted to grow by 5 per cent per year to 2026, fuel demand by about 3 per cent per year. At the same time aviation fuel production is predicted to decrease by several per cent a year after the crude oil production peak is reached. This scenario envisages a substantial lack of jet fuel by the year 2026. The aviation industry will have a hard time replacing this with fuel from other sources even if air traffic remains at today's level.

Published in: Uppsala University, diploma thesis
Available from: Global Energy Systems

The phenomenon is unmistakable (albeit largely unnoticed), and the contrast lends itself to all kinds of symbolic interpretations: Japan’s unending retreat from being a highly respected polity and economic powerhouse, widely expected to become the 21st century’s global ichiban, has entered troubled waters. As a result of that downward economic trend, whose beginning was signaled by the collapse of the Nikkei index in 1990, Japan’s GDP managed the real (inflation-adjusted) annual growth of just 1.1% between 1991 and 2006, while during the preceding 15 years the
country’s GDP had nearly doubled. [1] But this long-lasting economic and social malaise has been accompanied by a substantial (17%) increase in Japan’s primary energy consumption. This is remarkable because pre-1990 Japan was the world’s most consistently, and most admirably, energy-efficient economy that had always managed to do with relatively less energy.

We calculated the total quantity of energy required to produce an ESF graduate based on the energy costs associated with on and off campus activities in 2001. We identified and analyzed four components of the ESF energy budget: direct on-site energy; indirect energy in supplies, equipment, and new construction; energy in transportation of students, faculty, and staff, including daily commute and field trips/research; and maintenance metabolism, including energy use in food consumption, residence utilities, and student spending. We determined the energy cost per student in 2001 and multiplied this annual cost by the average time it takes to earn an ESF diploma to generate the energy cost per graduate. Direct energy on-site use was obtained through the ESF Physical Plant. Indirect energy, energy in transportation, and energy for maintenance metabolism was calculated using a campus wide survey and estimated energy intensities of specific goods and services. The average ESF graduate uses 1.15 TJ in pursuit of their degree. Energy analyses can be useful tools to understand total facility energy costs and can also serve in developing energy conservation initiatives.

Published in: Environmental study from SUNY College of Environmental Science and Forestry, 2003
Available from: http://www.esf.edu/spotlight/2003/es.htm#Anchor-ESTIMATING-14210

Given the importance that oil covers in our lives and the problem of oil depletion the world is facing, it is very important to understand how to move in this game from now on. In this work there is not only the presentation of the actual situation, in terms of projections, market structure, and economies of oil producers (mainly situated in the region of the Persian Gulf), but also the possible explanation of the productive behaviour of OPEC and of its swing producer Saudi-Arabia, the best oil management to conduct from now on, and the possible implications in terms of distribution of power resulting from oil depletion.

My interest in this issue takes form starting from the Hubbert’s curve. I also present models of oil management. Then I analyze the oil market both on the macro and the micro side, and I present the basic consequences a spike in oil prices could have on the exchange rate market. In the second part of the work I focus on Middle Eastern economies’ situation, studying the causes of their lack of growth, and the possibility they seem to have for growing beyond oil. The core part of the work is the one dedicated to the situation the world is facing since the beginning of 2008, when the price of oil reached, and passed, the level of 100$.

I present a personal explanation of the productive behaviour of Saudi Arabia and of the situation of its basins, trying to show the best productive path to follow in order to have a flow of oil available as longer as possible. In my conclusions I present the possible best management for the resource left, I analyze the global scenario that may occur with the actual and forecasted situation of oil, and its political implications.

ORIGINALLY SUBMITTED AS A MASTER’S THESIS TO THE FACULTY OF ECONOMICS OF THE UNIVERSITY OF MODENA AND REGGIO EMILIA (ITALY) ON APRIL 2008.
Copyright ©2008 Veronica Cinti

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This is a tale about energy and power. It describes the geographer Halford Mackinder’s geopolitical theories and compares them with current views outlined by Zbigniew Brzezinski and Michael T Klare, among others. With a critical approach it also provides a historical account of a Europe that stands in front of an energy struggle so severe that the current world order seems destined to fall. Oil and natural gas, has since the beginning of the 20th century, been used as a geopolitical tool in order to create dependence, control and even sometimes overthrow empires. USA has for example dominated the “protectorates” Europe and Japan by controlling the flow of oil in the Middle East. But this seems to change. It can’t be ruled out that the cities of Europe in the long run will be shrouded in darkness. The background is that Europe’s own deposits of fossil energy are decreasing at such vast speed that almost the entire demand will have to be imported by the year 2020. Awareness of this forecast, and the undertaking to reduce the carbon emissions in accordance with the Kyoto treaty, led to a grand proclamation in March 2007 to reduce the need for fossil fuels. This commitment seems however to be insufficient if independence towards other regions shall be maintained. Only a small part of the demand can be met by domestically produced fuels. Neither will the proposed energy reducing measures increase the energy security. The conclusion is that there is no time to develop new technology in order to save Europe from its difficult situation.

The dependence on Russia will instead grow stronger. The current geopolitical order, where the United States has acted as a military protector and guarantor of the energy security, looks like it is going to fall. The US is bogged down in the Afghanistan and Iraq wars at the same time as Europe’s dependence on energy from the East grows. The US also has economic troubles and their own energy security dilemma. Russia has on the other hand acted with greater self confidence and purposefully built alliances with China, the Middle East and its former republics in Central Asia. Russia may soon dictate the future of Europe with its energy trump card. If Europe keeps its alliance with US and tries to challenge or subjugate Russia into its “unipolar” order it will deepen the risk for conflict. In such a conflict, Moscow has the power to darken and cool down the European room. Since every country is dependent on the dwindling energy resources for their survival, it may escalate into a full blown war. But the new order may be short. Within two decades there will probably be no surplus of energy to export for Russia, or any other nation for that matter. Europe will by then be without it’s own energy resources and simultaneously lose the option to import.

Published in: Linköping University, student thesis, D-level geography
Available from: Linköping University

The UK faces long term challenges to the reliability of its energy supplies, arising from a
combination of domestic resource depletion, subsequent dependence on eroding global raw
fuel reserves, poor infrastructure investment and worsening weather. This study evaluates the
readiness of UK companies for such disruption.

The literature suggests that the approach to business continuity planning is not taking
account of these emergent risks and thus companies are unprepared. Selected UK businesses
were asked for their views on business continuity planning. This information gathering
comprised both qualitative and quantitative information obtained through questionnaire and
interviews.

It was found that whilst most companies in the study had measures in place that would provide a degree of protection, there were shortfalls in their approach to risk assessment
which meant emergent risks were not captured or mitigated against. To alleviate these vulnerabilities, it is recommended that the UK government become more proactive in communicating emergent risks and that companies review their risk assessment approach and take appropriate action to ensure that protective measures are implemented and risks are regularly reviewed.

Published in: Liverpool University, master of business administration thesis
Available from: See attachment below

The catch-word of the day is Sustainability. It’s been used so much lately that it has become legitimate to preface any discussion about it by stating that the term itself has become depleted. On the other hand, if we set limitations on our future that are specific and concrete, sustainability becomes something other than a diffuse goal. Suddenly it is not just a distant somewhere or a sometime – but instead a Something that is generated en passant, in the process of attempting to solve an acute problem at hand.

During the year of 2007, the world has experienced historically high oil prices both in nominal and in real terms, which has reopened discussions about energy sustainability. We therefore found it interesting to research oil dependencies and elasticities for Brazil, China, Norway, South Korea, Sweden and USA; and their possible oil consumption response to a Peak Oil phenomenon. Peak Oil in this thesis, implies that oil production will reach its climax and decline thereafter. To help draw conclusions, appropriate statistical analysis on macroeconomic variables was used as well as the modified Nerlove’s partial adjustment equation to calculate price and income elasticities both in the short and long-run. Regression results have shown that short-run price elasticities were low in all countries; in addition income elasticities were also inelastic but more elastic in relation to oil price elasticities. This indicates that oil consumption is more sensitive to changes in income than to changes in oil price. It was concluded that oil dependencies among nations differ and the trend is that developing countries are increasing their oil dependency while developed countries tend to decrease their oil dependency over time. Peak Oil will lead to higher oil prices, which in the short-run will change developing countries oil consumption to a greater extent than developed countries, but in the long-run their response are more similar. It was also noticed, that when GDP decreases in net-oil-importing countries, oil consumption will decrease even further. The opposite could be true for net-oil-exporting countries like Norway and Brazil.

Publication type: Undergraduate thesis C-level 10 p. (IHH, Economics)

Full thesis available from:
http://www.publ.hj.se/diva/abstract.xsql?dbid=1057