Transportation

Perhaps the most daunting challenge the next generation of Americans will face is what President Bush called our “addiction to oil”. The challenge is to find the means to provide for our transportation needs in the face of declining world oil production. Perhaps the central question is whether we will export the great wealth of America to foreign countries in payment for oil before we tackle the grand challenge of creating a new transportation future that does not rely completely on oil.
This article presents the historical facts relative to America's oil demand and domestic and world oil production resources. These historical trends are used to construct a scenario of future supply and demand for oil in the US. A range of existing technologies, which can reduce the need for petroleum imports, are then evaluated using wedges analysis, giving projections to the year 2030.

Published in: Energy Policy, Volume 37, Issue 4, April 2009, Pages 1249-1256
Available from: ScienceDirect

Nearly all researchers into the future of global passenger transport assume that both car-ownership and overall vehicular travel will continue to rise. But they also increasingly acknowledge the environmental and resource problems facing vehicular transport, particularly global climate change and oil depletion. In order to meet these challenges, researchers propose a variety of technological solutions, including greatly improved vehicular fuel efficiency, alternative fuels and propulsion systems, and carbon capture and storage. In this paper we question whether these optimistic solutions can be developed and widely deployed in the limited time frame available, and argue instead that not only are ever-rising vehicular mobility levels unlikely to occur, but that the human costs of continuing this approach are also too great. Instead we argue that because transport is a derived demand, we must first articulate a preferred vision of the future, then design an appropriate, sustainable transport system. Finally, we briefly outline what such a low-mobility future transport system would look like, using our own city, Melbourne, Australia, as a case study.

Published in: Futures, Volume 40, Issue 10, December 2008, Pages 865-872
Available from: ScienceDirect