transition

Mass international tourism has thrived on the abundant and cheap supply of energy, and this may be about to change as the world moves towards “Peak Oil”. The resultant scarcity and high price of all energy fuels will produce changes in human activities across the board, and specifically in tourism. In this looming transitional era, which has probably already arrived, tourism needs to make some dramatic changes to harmonize with the new realities of a post-energy world and its new society.

Published in: Tourismos, Volume 6, Issue 1,
Available from: Tourismos

The topic of Peak Oil – the idea that the world is approaching a geologically constrained
maximum rate of oil production - has consumed me for the past two years. After Peak Oil is
reached, it will be impossible to maintain, much less increase, the world’s daily oil production
rate, no matter how much money and effort are thrown at the problem. Any growth in oil
demand in one region will have to be met by a reduction in consumption someplace else. The
consequences for our economic health and security will be profound at all levels – individual,
business, national and global. Business as usual will not be an option. Peak Oil signals the
beginning of a revolution to whatever Age is going to follow the Industrial Age. Interesting
times.
My interest in Peak Oil management is the logical outgrowth of more than 20 years
working as a geologist and project manager, followed by 10 years as a business manager and
university administrator. The more deeply I looked, the more I became convinced that the whole
Peak Oil issue needs to be framed as a strategic management problem. Here we are, facing a
situation where the decisions we make now, whether by informed choice or default, will
determine the kind of life available to us and our children 30 years down the road. Yet, there is
very little reliable public data on which to base decisions, almost no public discourse, and no
viable long-term national energy policy or planning. A manager’s job is to plan a course of
action and allocate available resources to achieve a desired outcome, often in the face of
incomplete or contradictory information. By that definition, Peak Oil is a quintessential
management problem.

ORIGINALLY SUBMITTED AS A MASTER’S THESIS TO THE FACULTY OF THE DIVISION OF
BUSINESS AND ACCOUNTING, MERCY COLLEGE IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE
REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION, MAY 2006

Available from: http://www.ldeo.columbia.edu/~odland/Odland_PeakOilMgt_Dissertation.pdf