What is Peak oil?
"The term Peak Oil refers to the maximum rate of the production of oil in any area under consideration, recognising that it is a finite natural resource, subject to depletion."
--Colin Campbell
Production peak
Regression and Time Series Analysis of the World Oil Peak of Production: Another Look
Publication date:
2008-08-01
First published in:
Mathematical Geosciences
Abstract:
This paper analyzes world oil production data as a population/resource growth model. Both US and world oil production data are analyzed in terms of the logistic growth curve. It is shown that the logistic growth curve, while a suitable model for the American data, is not a suitable model for world oil production. A flexible family of curves which allows a wide range growth rates is considered. Using a nonlinear regression, one can predict various peak dates and total recoverable resources using different curves which all fit the data indistinguishably well.
Published in: Mathematical Geosciences, Volume 40, Number 6 / August, 2008, Pages 653-670
Available from: SpringerLink
