Petroleum

A Geopolitics of Cyprus

Publication date:
2012-01-05
First published in:
Middle East Reviews of International Affairs
Authors:
J. Leigh, P. Vukovic
Abstract:

Due to its strategic location, Cyprus has been coveted by various external powers throughout its history. Today shipping routes for oil and competition for control of potential chokepoints make European powers, Turkey, and others very involved with that island country.

Published in: MERIA (Middle East Reviews of International Affairs), Volume 15, Issue 4
Available from: Gloria Center

Depletion and Decline Curve Analysis in Crude Oil Production

Publication date:
2009-05-01
First published in:
Uppsala University
Authors:
M. Höök
Abstract:

Oil is the black blood that runs through the veins of the modern global energy system. While being the dominant source of energy, oil has also brought wealth and power to the western world. Future supply for oil is unsure or even expected to decrease due to limitations imposed by peak oil. Energy is fundamental to all parts of society. The enormous growth and development of society in the last two-hundred years has been driven by rapid increase in the extraction of fossil fuels. In the foresee-able future, the majority of energy will still come from fossil fuels. Consequently, reliable methods for forecasting their production, especially crude oil, are crucial. Forecasting crude oil production can be done in many different ways, but in order to provide realistic outlooks, one must be mindful of the physical laws that affect extraction of hydrocarbons from a reser-voir. Decline curve analysis is a long established tool for developing future outlooks for oil production from an individual well or an entire oilfield. Depletion has a fundamental role in the extraction of finite resources and is one of the driving mechanisms for oil flows within a reservoir. Depletion rate also can be connected to decline curves. Consequently, depletion analysis is a useful tool for analysis and forecasting crude oil production. Based on comprehensive databases with reserve and production data for hundreds of oil fields, it has been possible to identify typical behaviours and properties. Using a combination of depletion and decline rate analysis gives a better tool for describing future oil production on a field-by-field level. Reliable and reasonable forecasts are essential for planning and necessary in order to understand likely future world oil production.

Published in: Uppsala University, Licentiate thesis
Available from: Global Energy Systems

An Empirical Method to Make Oil Production Models Tolerant to Anomalies

Publication date:
2009-01-01
First published in:
Natural Resources Research
Authors:
S.H. Mohr, G.M. Evans
Abstract:

Modeling oil production is of interest to society and hotly debated. Often anomalies have occurred which makes modeling oil production via a particular theory (e.g., Hubbert’s bell curve) difficult. The empirical method described here allows for such historic anomalies to be incorporated while still using the underly theory. This method is explained using Hubbert’s bell curve and Former Soviet Union oil production as an example.

Published in: Natural Resources Research Volume 18, Number 1 / March, 2009, Pages 1-5
Available from: SpringerLink

Spare Capacity (2003) and Peak Production in World Oil

Publication date:
2004-03-01
First published in:
Natural Resources Research
Authors:
Alfred J. Cavallo
Abstract:

Reliable estimates of minimum spare capacity for world oil production can be obtained by comparing production statistics before and following the collapse of the Iraqi oil industry in March 2003. Spare production was at least 3.2 M b/d (million barrels/day), and was concentrated in the Middle East, mostly in Saudi Arabia (1.7 M b/d), but also in Kuwait and the UAE. This indicates that, assuming Iraqi production returns to its prewar level, a peak in world oil production resulting from resource constraints alone (ignoring political factors) before 2008 can be rejected. This also implies that with an invigorated Iraqi industry, and with further increases in production in the Former Soviet Union and other non-OPEC areas, there would be significant short-term downward pressure on oil prices and strains within OPEC. These transient issues do not alter the projection for a resource-constrained peak or plateau in non-OPEC production between 2010 and 2018.

Published in: Natural Resources Research, Volume 13, Number 1 / March, 2004, Pages 53-56
Available from: SpringerLink

An analysis of the US and world oil production patterns using Hubbert-style curves

Publication date:
2000-12-16
First published in:
Mathematical Geology
Authors:
A.A. Bartlett
Abstract:

A quantitative analytical method, using a spreadsheet, has been developed which allows the determination of values of the three parameters that characterize the Hubbert-style Gaussian error curve that best fits the conventional oil production data both for the U.S. and the world. The three parameters are: the total area under the Gaussian which represents the estimated ultimate (oil) recovery ( EUR), the date of the maximum of the curve, and the half-width of the curve. The "best fit" is determined by adjusting the values of the three parameters to minimize the root-mean-square deviation ( RMSD ) between the data and the Gaussian. The sensitivity of the fit to changes in values of the parameters is indicated by an exploration of the rate at which the RMSD increases as values of the three parameters are varied from the values that give the best fit. The results of the analysis are:

1) the size of the U.S. estimated ultimate recovery ( EUR ) of oil is suggested to be 2.22 x 1011 barrels (0.222 trillion bbl) of which approximately three-fourths appears to have been produced through 1995;

2) if the world EUR is 2.0 x 1012 bbl, (2.0 trillion bbl) a little less than half of this oil has been produced through 1995, and the maximum of world oil production is indicated to be in 2004;

3) each increase of one billion barrels in the size of the world EUR beyond the value of 2.0 x 1012 bbl can be expected to result in a delay of approximately 5.5 days in the date of maximum production;

4) alternate production scenarios are presented for EURs of 3.0 and 4.0 trillion bbl.

Published in: Mathematical Geology, Volume 32, Issue 1
Available from: Al Bartlett.org or
Hubbertpeak.com

Energy Resources

Publication date:
1969-07-03
First published in:
Geothermal Energy
Authors:
M. King Hubbert
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