peak oil mitigation

Global energy markets are continuing to experience an increase in petroleum prices. From a relatively low $20 per barrel in 2002, prices reached as high as $78 per barrel in 2006. During this time, there has been increasing discussion of “Peak Oil”—the concept that global oil production is peaking and beginning an irrevocable decline.

Even among those who do not consider Peak Oil a near-term problem that merits concerted action, there is a growing consensus that prices are trending higher and that increasing proportions of the world’s conventional oil1 supply will be coming from nations that are members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), especially those in the Middle East. The world is entering a period where growing global demand, OPEC dominance of oil production, and numerous geopolitical threats to supplies have combined to create great uncertainty about the future cost and security of oil.

Meanwhile, domestic natural gas production is lagging behind demand growth despite major demand destruction in certain U.S. industrial sectors. Major expansions of liquid natural gas imports, largely from OPEC countries, are being proposed to fill the supply gap. With these energy supply problems in mind, I review some predictions concerning both oil and natural gas production peaks and discuss how these peaks would impact industry.

Published in: Environmental Quality Management, Volume 17, Issue 1, October 2007, Pages 83 - 90
Available from: Wiley Interscience

Continued reliance on oil is unsustainable and this has resulted in interest in alternative fuels. Coal-to-liquids (CTL) can supply liquid fuels and have been successfully used in several cases, particularly in South Africa. This article reviews CTL theory and technology. Understanding the fundamental aspects of coal liquefaction technologies is vital for planning and policy-making, as future CTL systems will be integrated in a much larger global energy and fuel utilization system.
Conversion ratios for CTL are generally estimated to be between 1 and 2 barrels/ton coal. This puts a strict limitation on future CTL capacity imposed by future coal production volumes, regardless of other factors such as economics, emissions or environmental concerns. Assuming that 10% of world coal production can be diverted to CTL, the contribution to liquid fuel supply will be limited to only a few mega barrels per day. This prevents CTL from becoming a viable mitigation plan for liquid fuel shortage on a global scale. However, it is still possible for individual nations to derive significant shares of their fuel supply from CTL, but those nations must also have access to equally significant coal production capacities. It is unrealistic to claim that CTL provides a feasible solution to liquid fuels shortages created by peak oil. For the most part, it can only be a minor contributor and must be combined with other strategies.

Published in: International Journal of Energy Research, article in press
Available from: Wiley Interscience or Global Energy Systems