Peak oil

This paper develops further a a model of the economic process concerning the application of thermodynamic laws to economics. The paper sets out relationships between economic output and capital, labour, resource and waste stocks, with specific reference to energy, and is backed up by analysis of data of world energy resources and climate change. the paper concludes that both energy resource availability and climate change will have significant, limiting effects on the forward path of economic development.

Published in: Vocat International Ltd
Available from: Vocat International Ltd

Do we need to worry about Peak Oil? Are oil supplies in decline? Kjell Akelett and Mike Lynch beg to differ in this written debate.

Published in: Science & Public Affairs, December 2008
Available from: the British Association for the Advancement of Science

A theoretical model of conventional oil production has been developed. The model does not assume Hubbert’s bell curve, an asymmetric bell curve, or a reserve-to-production ratio method is correct, and does not use oil production data as an input. The theoretical model is in close agreement with actual production data until the 1979 oil crisis, with an R 2 value of greater than 0.98. Whilst the theoretical model indicates that an ideal production curve is slightly asymmetric, which differs from Hubbert’s curve, the ideal model compares well with the Hubbert model, with R 2 values in excess of 0.95. Amending the theoretical model to take into account the 1979 oil crisis, and assuming the ultimately recoverable resources are in the range of 2–3 trillion barrels, the amended model predicts conventional oil production to peak between 2010 and 2025. The amended model, for the case when the ultimately recoverable resources is 2.2 trillion barrels, indicates that oil production peaks in 2013.

Published in: Natural Resources Research, Volume 17, Number 1 / March, 2008
Available from: Springerlink

In this thesis future aviation fuel supply is compared to future aviation fuel demand. Most aviation fuels are jet fuels originating from crude oil. The crude oil must be refined to be useful and jet fuel is only one of many products that can be derived from crude oil. Jet fuel is extracted from the middle distillates fraction and competes, for example, with the production of diesel.

Crude oil is a limited natural resource subject to depletion and several reports indicate that the world's crude oil production is close to the maximum level and that it will start to decrease after reaching this maxima. On the other hand, it is predicted by the aviation industry that aviation traffic will keep on increasing. The industry has put up ambitious goals to increase fuel efficiency of the aviation fleet through better engines, better flying routes and better aerodynamics, but still the demand for aviation fuel would grow. Traffic is predicted to grow by 5 per cent per year to 2026, fuel demand by about 3 per cent per year. At the same time aviation fuel production is predicted to decrease by several per cent a year after the crude oil production peak is reached. This scenario envisages a substantial lack of jet fuel by the year 2026. The aviation industry will have a hard time replacing this with fuel from other sources even if air traffic remains at today's level.

Published in: Uppsala University,
Available from: Global Energysystems

Because oil is a depleting, finite natural resource, world conventional oil production will reach a maximum, called “the peak,” after which production will decline. Using differing methodologies and information of widely varying quality, experts and organizations have attempted to forecast the likely year of conventional oil production peaking. Their range of estimates extends from late last year to an apparent denial that it will ever happen. Almost all forecasts are based on differing, often dramatically differing geological assumptions. Explicit account of investment rates in new and expanded production has been relatively rare.

Because of the large uncertainties, it is difficult to define an overriding geological basis for accepting or rejecting any of the forecasts. However, the IEA recently warned that worldwide investment in expanded oil production has been considerably less than needed to continue world oil production that is adequate to meet expected world demand. Thus, geological limits may be yielding to investment limitations.

As noted in previous literature, peak oil presents the world with a risk management problem of tremendous complexity and enormity. Prudent risk minimization requires the implementation of mitigation measures roughly 20 years before peaking to avoid a very damaging world liquid fuels shortfall. Since it is uncertain when peaking will occur or whether it will be due to geological or investment limitations, the challenge is indeed vexing.

Published in: US DOE/NETL-2007/1263
Available from: Global Oilwatch

Nearly all researchers into the future of global passenger transport assume that both car-ownership and overall vehicular travel will continue to rise. But they also increasingly acknowledge the environmental and resource problems facing vehicular transport, particularly global climate change and oil depletion. In order to meet these challenges, researchers propose a variety of technological solutions, including greatly improved vehicular fuel efficiency, alternative fuels and propulsion systems, and carbon capture and storage. In this paper we question whether these optimistic solutions can be developed and widely deployed in the limited time frame available, and argue instead that not only are ever-rising vehicular mobility levels unlikely to occur, but that the human costs of continuing this approach are also too great. Instead we argue that because transport is a derived demand, we must first articulate a preferred vision of the future, then design an appropriate, sustainable transport system. Finally, we briefly outline what such a low-mobility future transport system would look like, using our own city, Melbourne, Australia, as a case study.

Published in: Futures, Volume 40, Issue 10, December 2008, Pages 865-872
Available from: ScienceDirect

If we could sum up the social and economic development of the last two centuries in a single piece of objective data, it would be our increased consumption of energy. This precious resource is the basis of each and every aspect of our daily lives. A civilization without energy would be impossible and unthinkable to us.

And yet, energy is finite and far from easy to obtain. What about the traditional main sources? Coal, oil, gas...? We have limited reserves of there and there is growing evidence to suggest that their extraction and consumption are speeding up global warming. With the world economy in the throes of an unprecedented growth cycle, new areas of the world are demaning their energy quota., which intensifying environmental problems and supply difficulties. All of this is reading us to ask the vital question that neither society nor the ruling classes seem prepared to answer: will there be enough energy for us all?

Book written by: Juan Rosell, Lastortras 2007
NOT FOR SALE
ISBN: 978-84-234-2589-1

The main conclusions of the Taskforce are:

1. The effects of peak oil will be felt in the next five years - during the next term of government

· High oil prices combined with the credit crunch had a profound effect on the UK economy this year. The UK needs to plan for the impact of this scenario in the longer term.

· In the absence of strong proactive action the Taskforce anticipate oil prices much higher than the existing record of $147 by 2013.

2. The risks to UK society from peak oil are far greater than those that tend to occupy the Government’s risk-thinking, including terrorism

· As easily and cheaply available oil supplies fall off, high oil prices will become a long-term trend having profound direct and indirect economic impacts:

· Increased oil-based input costs for manufacturing and agriculture

· Increased transport costs throughout the supply chain

· Wider macro-economic shocks via higher inflation, balance of payments deficit and reduction of consumer demand.

3. The UK Government needs to re-prioritise peak oil - as the impacts are more likely to arrive first – before climate change

· Currently the Government places climate change as the first priority for policymaking, followed by energy security, with peak oil in last place.

· In contrast, the Taskforce analysis is that peak oil is more of an immediate threat to the economy and people’s lives than climate change, grave as that threat is too. A rapidly falling supply of oil is likely to hit us before the worst impacts of the greenhouse effect. The Government needs urgently to reflect this threat in their analysis and planning.

At this critical turning point the Taskforce now urgently calls on the Government to:

1. Prioritise the peak oil threat and develop a strategy to address it

· Ed Miliband’s new department needs to develop a national energy plan that acknowledges the imminent threat of peak oil and addresses the entire energy sector.

2. Dramatically and rapidly increase investment in clean energy and renewables

· Policies in the UK Renewable Energy Strategy must go well beyond the EU targets for renewable energy (currently 20% of the energy mix by 2020).

3. Develop and implement a long term sustainable transport policy, with renewable energy sources at its heart

· Increase transport fuelled by sustainable bio-liquids and electricity and escalate measures to reduce the amount of fossil-fuel-based road transport.

Published in: http://www.peakoiltaskforce.net/ 29 october 2008
Available from: Peak Oil Task Force

Energy Security and Global Warming are analysed as 21st century sustainability threats.

Best estimates of future energy availability are derived as an Energy Reference Case (ERC). An explicit economic growth model is used to interpret the impact of the ERC on economic growth. The model predicts a divergence from 20th century equilibrium conditions in economic growth and socio-economic welfare is only stabilised under optimistic assumptions that demands a paradigm shift in contemporary economic thought and focused attention from policy makers.

Fossil fuel depletion also constrains the maximum extent of Global Warming. Carbon emissions from the ERC comply nominally with the B1 scenario, which is the lowest emissions case considered by the IPCC. The IPCC predicts a temperature response within acceptance limits of the Global Warming debate for the B1 scenario. The carbon feedback cycle, used in the IPCC models, is shown as invalid for low-emissions scenarios and an alternative carbon cycle reduces the temperature response for the ERC considerably compared to the IPCC predictions.

Our analysis proposes that the extent of Global Warming may be acceptable and preferable compared to the socio-economic consequences of not exploiting fossil fuel reserves to their full technical potential.

Published in: Energy Policy, Article in Press
Available from: ScienceDirect