Oil resources

Peak oil theory is a theory concerning long-term oil reserves and the rate of oil production. Peak oil refers to the maximum rate of the production of oil or gas in any area under consideration. Its inevitability is analyzed from three aspects. The factors that influence peak oil and their mechanisms are discussed. These include the amount of resources, the discovery maturity of resources, the depletion rate of reserves and the demand for oil. The advance in the study of peak oil in China is divided into three stages. The main characteristics, main researchers, forecast results and research methods are described in each stage. The progress of the study of peak oil in China is summarized and the present problems are analyzed. Finally three development trends of peak oil study in China are presented.

Published in: Petroleum Science, Volume 6, Number 2, Pages 217-224
Available from: SpringerLink

This paper analyzes world oil production data as a population/resource growth model. Both US and world oil production data are analyzed in terms of the logistic growth curve. It is shown that the logistic growth curve, while a suitable model for the American data, is not a suitable model for world oil production. A flexible family of curves which allows a wide range growth rates is considered. Using a nonlinear regression, one can predict various peak dates and total recoverable resources using different curves which all fit the data indistinguishably well.

Published in: Mathematical Geosciences, Volume 40, Number 6 / August, 2008, Pages 653-670
Available from: SpringerLink