oil depletion

Peak Oil for Dummies

Publication date:
2009-08-09
First published in:
Seeking Alpha
Authors:
Lionel Badal
Abstract:

Over the past decade, a fierce debate has emerged amongst energy experts about whether global oil production was about to reach a peak, followed by an irreversible decline.

This event, commonly known as “Peak Oil” far outreaches the sole discipline of geology. From transportation to modern agriculture, petrochemicals and even the pharmaceutical industry all of them rely on one commodity: cheap and abundant oil. In order to sustain the needs of an ever globalized world, oil demand should double by 2050 [3].

Nonetheless, geological limitations will disrupt this improbable scenario. In fact, a growing proportion of energy experts argue that Peak Oil is impending and warn about the extraordinary scale of the crisis...

Published in: Seeking Alpha, 9 August 2009
Available from: Seeking Alpha

Policy implications of north sea oil depletion at national level

Publication date:
1982-06-01
First published in:
Omega
Authors:
H. Motamen
Abstract:

This paper puts forward a methodology for analysing the impact of alternative oil depletion policies at national level. This is done by developing a long run macroeconomic model and combining it with the method of optimal control. The model presented here is formulated with special reference to North Sea oil in the UK, but it can be applied, with the necessary modifications, to determine depletion strategies to any oil-rich economy.

Published in: Omega, Volume 10, Issue 5, 1982, Pages 539-551
Available from: ScienceDirect

Petroleum and People

Publication date:
2002-11-01
First published in:
Population & Environment
Authors:
Colin J. Campbell
Abstract:

The discovery of oil peaked in the 1960s, meaning that the corresponding peak of production is now imminent. The technical evidence is compelling, but the issue is clouded by denial and obfuscation. Peak oil threatens to be a historic discontinuity as the economic growth of the past Century, which was driven by an abundant supply of cheap oil-based energy, gives way to decline. The population of the world, which grew six-fold in parallel with oil, faces decline, probably accompanied by rising migration pressures. Radical new political structures may be needed in a world facing ever deeper resource and environmental constraints.

Published in: Population & Environment, Volume 24, Number 2 / November, 2002, Pages 193-207
Available from: SpringerLink

The evolution of giant oil field production behaviour

Publication date:
2009-03-01
First published in:
Natural Resources Research
Authors:
M. Höök et al
Abstract:

The giant oil fields of the world are only a small fraction of the total number of fields, but their importance is huge. Over 50% of the world oil production came from giants by 2005 and more than haft of the worlds ultimate reserves are found in giants. Based on this it is reasonable to assume that the future development of the giant oil fields will have a significant impact on the world oil supply.

In order to better understand the giant fields and their future behaviour one must first understand their history. This study has used a comprehensive database on giant oil fields in order to determine their typical parameters, such as the average decline rate and life-times of giants. The evolution of giant oil field behaviour has been investigated to better understand future behaviour. One conclusion is that new technology and production methods have generally lead to high depletion rate and rapid decline. The historical trend points towards high decline rates of fields currently on plateau production.

The peak production generally occurs before half the ultimate reserves have been produced in giant oil fields. A strong correlation between depletion-at-peak and average decline rate is also found, verifying that high depletion rate leads to rapid decline. Our result also implies that depletion analysis can be used to rule out unrealistic production expectations from a known reserve, or to connect an estimated production level to a needed reserve base.

Published in: Natural Resources Research, Volume 18, Number 1, March 2009, Pages 39-56
Available from: SpringerLink
Also available from: Global Energy Systems

Better understanding urged for rapidly depleting reserves

Publication date:
1997-04-07
First published in:
Oil & Gas Journal
Authors:
Colin J. Campbell
Abstract:

In the worst days of the Battle of Britain, military commanders had to balance the need to commit fighter planes to defend the capital against having enough in reserve for later attacks. They had to have accurate information on the resources available, but it was easily obtained by a count that could be checked and double checked.

It is equally important that the world should know what its reserves of oil are because its economy depends heavily on oil-based energy, especially for transport and agriculture, which means food. It also needs to know where the reserves are. But unlike in the Battle of Britain, no one can go out to count the reserves because they lie far underground in geological traps whose precise nature can only be estimated.

The exact size of the reserves of a field will be known only on the day when it is finally abandoned; until then, some measure of uncertainty will always surround the number. We need to understand that uncertainty better, in the same way as we assess the probability of a hurricane striking a particular place at a given time.

For more than 60 years, the Oil & Gas Journal has put out an annual report of the world's reserves based on information provided to it by governments and industry. It has been a valiant effort, having the great merit of consistency. The numbers are widely accepted as a firm basis of what the reserve position is, being reproduced, for example, by British Petroleum Co. plc in its Statistical Review of World Energy...

Published in: Oil and Gas Journal, Volume 95, Issue 14, 7 Apr 1997
Available from: Oil & Gas Journal

The political economy of oil depletion

Publication date:
2008-04-17
First published in:
University of Modena and Reggio Emilia
Authors:
Veronica Cinti
Abstract:

Given the importance that oil covers in our lives and the problem of oil depletion the world is facing, it is very important to understand how to move in this game from now on. In this work there is not only the presentation of the actual situation, in terms of projections, market structure, and economies of oil producers (mainly situated in the region of the Persian Gulf), but also the possible explanation of the productive behaviour of OPEC and of its swing producer Saudi-Arabia, the best oil management to conduct from now on, and the possible implications in terms of distribution of power resulting from oil depletion.

My interest in this issue takes form starting from the Hubbert’s curve. I also present models of oil management. Then I analyze the oil market both on the macro and the micro side, and I present the basic consequences a spike in oil prices could have on the exchange rate market. In the second part of the work I focus on Middle Eastern economies’ situation, studying the causes of their lack of growth, and the possibility they seem to have for growing beyond oil. The core part of the work is the one dedicated to the situation the world is facing since the beginning of 2008, when the price of oil reached, and passed, the level of 100$.

I present a personal explanation of the productive behaviour of Saudi Arabia and of the situation of its basins, trying to show the best productive path to follow in order to have a flow of oil available as longer as possible. In my conclusions I present the possible best management for the resource left, I analyze the global scenario that may occur with the actual and forecasted situation of oil, and its political implications.

ORIGINALLY SUBMITTED AS A MASTER’S THESIS TO THE FACULTY OF ECONOMICS OF THE UNIVERSITY OF MODENA AND REGGIO EMILIA (ITALY) ON APRIL 2008.
Copyright ©2008 Veronica Cinti

Available from: See below

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Russian Oil - a Depletion Rate Model estimate of the future Russian oil production and export

Publication date:
2007-10-01
First published in:
Uppsala University
Authors:
Aram Mäkivierikko
Abstract:

Oil is a heavily used natural resource with a limited supply. Russia is one of the largest oil producers and the second largest oil exporting country in the world. Many surrounding countries are dependent on Russian energy. Swedish oil import from Russia has grown from 5% to 35% during 2001-2005.

The fall of the Soviet Union in 1991 caused the Russian oil production to drop by 50%. The production is currently growing again – but how will it develop in the future?

This report studies different scenarios for Russian oil production and export based on three different estimates of how much oil Russia has left today (70, 120 or 170 Gb), combined with estimates about how fast Russia can produce the oil (a depletion rate of 3%, 4.5% or 6%).

In the worst case, Russian oil production and also the oil export will peak very soon or has already done so in 2006. In the best case, a constant export can be held until 2036. It is not likely that the Russian production will increase more than 5-10% over today’s level.

Published in: Uppsala University,
Available from: Global Energy Systems

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