modeling

Although considerable discussion surrounds unconventional oil's ability to mitigate the effects of peaking conventional oil production, very few models of unconventional oil production exist. The aim of this article was to project unconventional oil production to determine how significant its production may be. Two models were developed to predict the unconventional oil production, one model for in situ production and the other for mining the resources. Unconventional oil production is anticipated to reach between 18 and 32 Gb/y (49–88 Mb/d) in 2076–2084, before declining. If conventional oil production is at peak production then projected unconventional oil production cannot mitigate peaking of conventional oil alone.

Published in: Energy Policy, Volume 38, Issue 1, January 2010, Pages 265-276
Available from: ScienceDirect

Modeling oil production is of interest to society and hotly debated. Often anomalies have occurred which makes modeling oil production via a particular theory (e.g., Hubbert’s bell curve) difficult. The empirical method described here allows for such historic anomalies to be incorporated while still using the underly theory. This method is explained using Hubbert’s bell curve and Former Soviet Union oil production as an example.

Published in: Natural Resources Research Volume 18, Number 1 / March, 2009, Pages 1-5
Available from: SpringerLink