Middle East

Crude oil (CO) and natural gas (NG) play an important role in the world economy. The Arab countries (ACs) share 64% of the total oil reserves and 40% of the NG reserves. On the production side, ACs contribute to 30% and 9% of the world production of CO and NG, respectively. Accurate forecast models are needed to do better planning and create less risky business environment. In this paper, an econometric model is built to capture the behavior of CO and NG production in the ESCWA countries. The model is used to forecast future production trends of CO and NG, and thus provide a powerful tool for researchers, planners and investors working in the energy field.

Published in: Energy Policy, Volume 35, Issue 4, April 2007, Pages 2096-2109
Available from: ScienceDirect

Seen from a Middle Eastern perspective, the present global oil situation can be summarised within five major and inescapable trends:

1 The world's super giant and giant oil fields are dying off;

2 There are no more major frontier regions left to explore besides the earth's poles;

3 Production of non-conventional crude oil has been initiated at great costs - in Venezuela's Orinoco belt, Canada's Athabasca tar sands and ultra-deep waters;

4 Even OPEC's oil production has its limits;

5 No major primary energy rival can possibly take over from oil and gas in the medium term.

Adding up these five trends, one can envision a global oil crunch at the horizon - most probably within the present decade. Unfortunately, however, the general public will not heed such a rational vision. And, even if it did, it would be loath to respond to the implied threat. In its defence, it should be said that many actors are constantly and consistently reassuring it: the press (even parts of the specialised press), most politicians, some international institutions, a couple of major oil companies and naturally OPEC. But this can only last until petrol stations post 'empty', natural gas supplies are suddenly shunted and, eventually, the lights go off.

Published in: Energy Exploration & Exploitation, Volume 20, Number 6, 1 December 2002 , pp. 451-455(5)
Available from: IngentaConnect