long-term forecast

According to the long term scenarios of the International Energy Agency (IEA) and the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), conventional oil production is expected to grow until at least 2030. EIA has published results from a resource constrained production model which ostensibly supports such a scenario. The model is here described and analyzed in detail. However, it is shown that the model, although sound in principle, has been misapplied due to a confusion of resource categories. A correction of this methodological error reveals that EIA’s scenario requires rather extreme and implausible assumptions regarding future global decline rates. This result puts into question the basis for the conclusion that global “peak oil” would not occur before 2030.

Published in: Energy Policy, article in press
Available from: ScienceDirect or Global Energy Systems

A probabilistic estimate of the global conventional recoverable oil resource was performed based on the concept of the Earth's sedimentary cover as a holistic system. A forecast for global oil production was made for the period till the end of the 21st century. It has been shown that the global oil production will most likely peak at 4.2–4.7 billion tons a year in 2020–2030. For that period, the top oil-producing regions in the world will be the Persian Gulf, West and East Siberia. The upstream sector at that time will turn its focus to the Arctic shelf. Annual oil production could be maintained at a level of 4.2–4.5 billion tons till the late 2040s.

Published in: Russian Geology and Geophysics, Volume 50, Issue 4, April 2009, Pages 237-242
Available from: ScienceDirect