Hubbert curve

Oil production: A probabilistic model of the Hubbert curve

Publication date:
2011-07-01
First published in:
Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry
Authors:
B. Michel
Abstract:

The specific distribution of hydrocarbon field sizes has a deep impact on the dynamics of the production inside a basin. This paper proposes a probabilistic model based on the field size distribution, taking into account the launching production process of the fields. This model can be seen as a ‘bottom-up’ probabilistic method to simulate and predict oil production. The asymptotic results obtained allow us to propose relevant fitting to real production curves.

Published in: Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry, Volume 27, Issue 4, July/August 2011, Pages 434–449,
Available from: Wiley Online Library

Oil production: A probabilistic model of the Hubbert curve

Publication date:
2010-07-06
First published in:
Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry
Authors:
B. Michel
Abstract:

The specific distribution of hydrocarbon field sizes has a deep impact on the dynamics of the production inside a basin. This paper proposes a probabilistic model based on the field size distribution, taking into account the launching production process of the fields. This model can be seen as a ‘bottom-up’ probabilistic method to simulate and predict oil production. The asymptotic results obtained allow us to propose relevant fitting to real production curves.

Published in: Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry, article in press
Available from: Wiley Online Library or see below

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A Depletion Protocol for Non-Renewable Natural Resources: Australia as an Example

Publication date:
2006-09-01
First published in:
Natural Resources Research
Authors:
A.A. Bartlett
Abstract:

This paper examines the implications of statements by Australia’s Minister of… Resources that Australia’s exports of coal are growing rapidly and that Australia’s coal will last “110 years at current rates of production.” If one assumes that coal production P(t), follows a Gaussian curve (similar to a Hubbert curve) one can construct a family of Gaussian curves showing possible future paths of P(t) which are consistent with the cited “110 years.” Each curve reaches a maximum after which P(t) declines toward zero. Knowledge of the present value of dP/dt allows one member of the family to be identified as the most probable future path of P(t). Families of curves and tabular data are presented for resource quantities that would last 50, 100 and 200 years “at current rates of production.” If, instead, Australia’s P(t) follows a declining exponential curve (exp(−kt)) with k = (1/110) per year, the stated quantity of coal will allow production to continue forever, with P(t) declining with a half life of 76 y. This and more rapidly declining exponential paths are the only paths that can be said to be sustainable. The envelope of the family of Gaussian curves divides the (P, t) plane into “allowed” and “forbidden” areas. The declining exponential curve divides the “allowed” area into an upper area that is “terminal” and a lower area that is “sustainable.” These facts, coupled with Australia’s expectations of rapid growth of its population, suggest that Australia’s present resource policies are “anti-sustainable” and that the people of Australia need to rethink their present policy of rapidly exporting their fossil fuels.

Published in: Natural Resources Research, Volume 15, Number 3, Pages 151-164
Available from: SpringerLink

Multicyclic Hubbert model shows global conventional gas output peaking in 2019

Publication date:
2004-08-16
First published in:
Oil and Gas Journal
Authors:
A. Imam et al.
Abstract:

A new, multicyclic approach to modeling future global production of natural gas reaffirms an outlook for growing dependence of Western nations on the Middle East and Russia for their supply as global conventional gas output peaks in the next decade. This multicyclic Hubbert model avoids some of the pitfalls seen with earlier Hubbert-style models of future production peak and decline for oil and gas. However, a lack of country data and questions over the future contribution of unconventional gas resources mean that a completely accurate picture of future global gas supply through even this improved model is not yet available.

Published in: Oil and Gas Journal, Volume 102, Issue 31, 16 August 2004
Available from: Energyjustice.net

Regression and Time Series Analysis of the World Oil Peak of Production: Another Look

Publication date:
2008-08-01
First published in:
Mathematical Geosciences
Authors:
P. Caithamer
Abstract:

This paper analyzes world oil production data as a population/resource growth model. Both US and world oil production data are analyzed in terms of the logistic growth curve. It is shown that the logistic growth curve, while a suitable model for the American data, is not a suitable model for world oil production. A flexible family of curves which allows a wide range growth rates is considered. Using a nonlinear regression, one can predict various peak dates and total recoverable resources using different curves which all fit the data indistinguishably well.

Published in: Mathematical Geosciences, Volume 40, Number 6 / August, 2008, Pages 653-670
Available from: SpringerLink

Peak Oil: Testing Hubbert’s Curve via Theoretical Modeling

Publication date:
2008-03-01
First published in:
Natural Resources Research
Authors:
S.H. Mohr , G.M. Evans
Abstract:

A theoretical model of conventional oil production has been developed. The model does not assume Hubbert’s bell curve, an asymmetric bell curve, or a reserve-to-production ratio method is correct, and does not use oil production data as an input. The theoretical model is in close agreement with actual production data until the 1979 oil crisis, with an R 2 value of greater than 0.98. Whilst the theoretical model indicates that an ideal production curve is slightly asymmetric, which differs from Hubbert’s curve, the ideal model compares well with the Hubbert model, with R 2 values in excess of 0.95. Amending the theoretical model to take into account the 1979 oil crisis, and assuming the ultimately recoverable resources are in the range of 2–3 trillion barrels, the amended model predicts conventional oil production to peak between 2010 and 2025. The amended model, for the case when the ultimately recoverable resources is 2.2 trillion barrels, indicates that oil production peaks in 2013.

Published in: Natural Resources Research, Volume 17, Number 1 / March, 2008
Available from: Springerlink

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