Forecasting

The formation of modern society has been dominated by coal and oil, and together these two fossil fuels account for nearly two thirds of all primary energy used by mankind. This makes future production a key question for future social development and this thesis attempts to answer whether it is possible to rely on an assumption of ever increasing production of coal and oil. Both coal and oil are finite resources, created over long time scales by geological processes. It is thus impossible to extract more fossil fuels than geologically available. In other words, there are limits to growth imposed by nature.

The concept of depletion and exhaustion of recoverable resources is a fundamental question for the future extraction of coal and oil. Historical experience shows that peaking is a well established phenomenon in production of various natural resources. Coal and oil are no exceptions, and historical data shows that easily exploitable resources are exhausted while more challenging deposits are left for the future.

For oil, depletion can also be tied directly to the physical laws governing fluid flows in reservoirs. Understanding and predicting behaviour of individual fields, in particularly giant fields, are essential for understanding future production. Based on comprehensive databases with reserve and production data for hundreds of oilfields, typical patterns were found. Alternatively, depletion can manifest itself indirectly through various mechanisms. This has been studied for coal.

Over 60% of the global crude oil production is derived from only around 330 giant oilfields, where many of them are becoming increasingly mature. The annual decline in existing oil production has been determined to be around 6% and it is unrealistic that this will be offset by new field developments, additional discoveries or unconventional oil. This implies that the peak of the oil age is here.

For coal a similar picture emerges, where 90% of the global coal production originates from only 6 countries. Some of them, such as the USA show signs of increasing maturity and exhaustion of the recoverable amounts. However, there is a greater uncertainty about the recoverable reserves and coal production may yield a global maximum somewhere between 2030 and 2060.

This analysis shows that the global production peaks of both oil and coal can be expected comparatively soon. This has significant consequences for the global energy supply and society, economy and environment. The results of this thesis indicate that these challenges should not be taken lightly.

Published in: Uppsala University, doctoral thesis
Available from: Uppsala University

To investigate the situation of conventional oil and gas, this paper examines the global oil and gas discoveries, proved reserves, production, consumption and price. All the influencing factors can be subjected to risk and opportunity analyses, so in the paper, we build upon a risk-opportunity analysis framework, which is a new train of thought. To forecast the peak time of oil and gas production, we used the methods of multi-Hubbert model forecasting and data forecasting. Our results showed that the world oil production will reach a peak between 2010 and 2015 and the gas production will reach a peak around 2030 Oil peak is coming and gas peak is on the way. The main purpose of forecasting oil and gas production peak is give people enough time for preparing mitigation and adaptation plans. This means taking decisive action well before the problem is obvious.

Published in: Petroleum Science, Volume 7, Issue 1, February 2010, Pages 136-146
Available from: SpringerLink

In recent years, several published reports have assured the public that all is well with the global petroleum supply, citing new oil-production technologies and a record-high oil-reserve figure. Oil production has exceeded demand since late 1997, driving oil prices downward. Global oil consumption, however, is continuing to increase while new oil discoveries decrease. Petroleum is a finite resource, and the production rate will peak and then permanently decline when approximately half of the producible resource has been consumed. The United States has already experienced this; petroleum production in the United States has been in decline since 1970 despite new production technologies and energetic exploration. At recent rates of increase in oil production, the peak in global petroleum production will arrive in about 2008. All is not well with the global petroleum supply, and our society must begin to prepare for the changes that a declining petroleum supply will bring.

Published in: Journal of Geoscience Education, Volume 48, Issue 2, March 2000, Pages 130-136
Available from: Snolab

Several official reports on future global primary energy production and use develop scenarios which suggest that the high energy growth rates of the 20th century will continue unabated until 2050 and even beyond. In this paper we examine whether any combination of fossil, nuclear, and renewable energy sources can deliver such levels of primary energy—around 1000 EJ in 2050. We find that too much emphasis has been placed on whether or not reserves in the case of fossil and nuclear energy, or technical potential in the case of renewable energy, can support the levels of energy use forecast. In contrast, our analysis stresses the crucial importance of the interaction of technical potentials for annual production with environmental factors, social, political, and economic concerns and limited time frames for implementation, in heavily constraining the real energy options for the future. Together, these constraints suggest that future energy consumption will be significantly lower than the present level.

Published in: Energy Policy, Volume 37, Issue 7, July 2009, Pages 2469-2474
Available from: ScienceDirect