economy

The world passed the halfway point of oil supply in 2005. World demand for oil likely will severely outstrip supply in 2008, leading to increasingly higher oil prices. Consequences are likely to include increasing gasoline prices, rapidly increasing inflation, and subsequently a series of increasingly severe recessions followed by a worldwide economic depression. Consequences may include, particularly in industrialized countries such as the United States, massive unemployment, economic collapse, and chaos.

Published in: Bulletin of Science, Technology & Society, Volume 28, Issue 3, May 2008, Pages 187-191
Available from: http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0270467608316098

This paper puts forward a methodology for analysing the impact of alternative oil depletion policies at national level. This is done by developing a long run macroeconomic model and combining it with the method of optimal control. The model presented here is formulated with special reference to North Sea oil in the UK, but it can be applied, with the necessary modifications, to determine depletion strategies to any oil-rich economy.

Published in: Omega, Volume 10, Issue 5, 1982, Pages 539-551
Available from: ScienceDirect

Given the importance that oil covers in our lives and the problem of oil depletion the world is facing, it is very important to understand how to move in this game from now on. In this work there is not only the presentation of the actual situation, in terms of projections, market structure, and economies of oil producers (mainly situated in the region of the Persian Gulf), but also the possible explanation of the productive behaviour of OPEC and of its swing producer Saudi-Arabia, the best oil management to conduct from now on, and the possible implications in terms of distribution of power resulting from oil depletion.

My interest in this issue takes form starting from the Hubbert’s curve. I also present models of oil management. Then I analyze the oil market both on the macro and the micro side, and I present the basic consequences a spike in oil prices could have on the exchange rate market. In the second part of the work I focus on Middle Eastern economies’ situation, studying the causes of their lack of growth, and the possibility they seem to have for growing beyond oil. The core part of the work is the one dedicated to the situation the world is facing since the beginning of 2008, when the price of oil reached, and passed, the level of 100$.

I present a personal explanation of the productive behaviour of Saudi Arabia and of the situation of its basins, trying to show the best productive path to follow in order to have a flow of oil available as longer as possible. In my conclusions I present the possible best management for the resource left, I analyze the global scenario that may occur with the actual and forecasted situation of oil, and its political implications.

ORIGINALLY SUBMITTED AS A MASTER’S THESIS TO THE FACULTY OF ECONOMICS OF THE UNIVERSITY OF MODENA AND REGGIO EMILIA (ITALY) ON APRIL 2008.
Copyright ©2008 Veronica Cinti

Available from: See below

The topic of Peak Oil – the idea that the world is approaching a geologically constrained
maximum rate of oil production - has consumed me for the past two years. After Peak Oil is
reached, it will be impossible to maintain, much less increase, the world’s daily oil production
rate, no matter how much money and effort are thrown at the problem. Any growth in oil
demand in one region will have to be met by a reduction in consumption someplace else. The
consequences for our economic health and security will be profound at all levels – individual,
business, national and global. Business as usual will not be an option. Peak Oil signals the
beginning of a revolution to whatever Age is going to follow the Industrial Age. Interesting
times.
My interest in Peak Oil management is the logical outgrowth of more than 20 years
working as a geologist and project manager, followed by 10 years as a business manager and
university administrator. The more deeply I looked, the more I became convinced that the whole
Peak Oil issue needs to be framed as a strategic management problem. Here we are, facing a
situation where the decisions we make now, whether by informed choice or default, will
determine the kind of life available to us and our children 30 years down the road. Yet, there is
very little reliable public data on which to base decisions, almost no public discourse, and no
viable long-term national energy policy or planning. A manager’s job is to plan a course of
action and allocate available resources to achieve a desired outcome, often in the face of
incomplete or contradictory information. By that definition, Peak Oil is a quintessential
management problem.

ORIGINALLY SUBMITTED AS A MASTER’S THESIS TO THE FACULTY OF THE DIVISION OF
BUSINESS AND ACCOUNTING, MERCY COLLEGE IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE
REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION, MAY 2006

Available from: http://www.ldeo.columbia.edu/~odland/Odland_PeakOilMgt_Dissertation.pdf