Decline rates

The most important contributors to the world’s total oil production are the giant oil fields. Using a comprehensive database of giant oil field production, the average decline rates of the world’s giant oil fields are estimated. Separating subclasses was necessary, since there are large differences between land and offshore fields, as well as between non-OPEC and OPEC fields. The evolution of decline rates over past decades includes the impact of new technologies and production techniques and clearly shows that the average decline rate for individual giant fields is increasing with time. These factors have significant implications for the future, since the most important world oil production base – giant fields – will decline more rapidly in the future, according to our findings. Our conclusion is that the world faces an increasing oil supply challenge, as the decline in existing production is not only high now but will be increasing in the future.

Published in: Energy Policy, Volume 37, Issue 6, June 2009, Pages 2262-2272
Available from: ScienceDirect
Also available from: Global Energy Systems

Norway has been a very important oil exporter for the world and an important supplier for Europe. Oil was first discovered in the North Sea in late 1960s and the rapid expansion of Norwegian oil production lead to the low oil prices in the beginning of the 1990s. In 2001, Norway reached its peak production and began to decline.

The Norwegian oil production can be broken up into four subclasses; giant oil fields, smaller oil fields, natural gas liquids and condensate. The production of each subclass was analyzed to find typical behaviour and decline rates. The typical decline rates of giant oil fields were found to be −13% annually. The other subclasses decline equally fast or even faster, especially condensate with typical decline rates of −40% annually. The conclusion from the forecast is that Norway will have dramatically reduced export volume of oil by 2030.

Published in: Energy Policy, Volume 36, Issue 11, November 2008, Pages 4262-4271
Available from: ScienceDirect
Also available from: Global Energy Systems