China

China's oil reserve forecast and analysis based on peak oil models

Publication date:
2008-09-13
First published in:
Energy Policy
Authors:
Feng Lianyong et al
Abstract:

In order to forecast future oil production it is necessary to know the size of the reserves and use models. In this article, we use the typical Peak Oil models, the Hu–Chen–Zhang model usually called HCZ model and the Hubbert model, which have been used commonly for forecasting in China and the world, to forecast China's oil Ultimate Recovery (URR). The former appears to give more realistic results based on an URR for China of 15.64 billion tons. The study leads to some suggestions for new policies to meet the unfolding energy situation.

Published in: Energy Policy, Volume 36, Issue 11, November 2008, Pages 4149-4153
Available from: ScienceDirect

A critical review of IEA's oil demand forecast for China

Publication date:
2008-03-01
First published in:
Energy Policy
Authors:
W. Nel & C. Cooper
Abstract:

China has a rapidly growing economy with a rapidly increasing demand for oil. The International Energy Agency (IEA) investigated possible future oil demand scenarios for China in the 2006 World Energy Outlook. The debate on whether oil supplies will be constrained in the near future, because of limited new discoveries, raises the concern that the oil industry may not be able to produce sufficient oil to meet this demand.

This paper examines the historical relationship between economic growth and oil consumption in a number of countries. Logistic curve characteristics are observed in the relationship between per capita economic activity and oil consumption. This research has determined that the minimum statistical (lower-bound) annual oil consumption for developed countries is 11 barrels per capita. Despite the increase reported in total energy efficiency, no developed country has been able to reduce oil consumption below this lower limit. Indeed, the IEA projections to 2030 for the OECD countries show no reduction in oil demand on a per capita basis. If this lower limit is applied to China, it is clear that the IEA projections for China are under-estimating the growth in demand for oil.

This research has determined that this under-estimation could be as high as 10 million barrels per day by 2025. If proponents of Peak Oil such as Laherrère, Campbell and Deffeyes are correct about the predicted peak in oil production before 2020 then the implications of this reassessment of China's oil demand will have profound implications for mankind.

Published in: Energy Policy, Volume 36, Issue 3, March 2008, Pages 1096-1106
Available from: ScienceDirect

Peak oil models forecast China’s oil supply, demand

Publication date:
2008-01-14
First published in:
Oil & Gas Journal
Authors:
Feng Lianyong et al
Abstract:

Peak oil models show a widening gap between China’s oil demand and production. The generalized Weng model predicts a peak oil production in China of 196 million tonnes in 2026 and the Hubbert model indicates a peak oil demand in 2034 of 633 million tonnes.

Because forecasts indicate a widening gap between production and demand, China’s government is undertaking various measures to reduce this gap and more measures will be needed in the future. In 2006, China imported 47% of the oil it consumed.

For predicting future oil production and demand in China, this article shows the results of three peak oil models: Hubbert, Generalized Weng, and HCZ.

Published in: Oil & Gas Journal, January 14, 2008, volume 106, issue 2
Available from: Oil & Gas Journal Online

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