ABSTRACTS
 2nd International Workshop on Oil Depletion
Paris, France, May 26-27 2003
Organised by the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas
The workshop was held at the  Institut Francais du Pétrole , Rueil Malmaison, Paris.

  Proceedings of the 2nd International Workshop on Oil Depletion, Paris, France, May 26-27 2003,
Edited by K. Aleklett, C. Campbell and J. Meyer, www.peakoil.net/iwood2003 .

Russian Oil Reserves, Future Exploration Potential and Production Capacity Ray Leonard     An evaluation of Russian proven oil reserves has been conducted taking into account public information, such as published reserve audits of Russian oil companies, supplemented by economic evaluation.  The results indicate proven recoverable reserves of 97-119 billion barrels depending upon a low ($16-22/Bbl Brent) to high ($22-28/bbl Brent) price scenario.  Approximately two-thirds of the proven reserves lie in West Siberia.  An analysis was also conducted to predict future exploration potential taking into account the high price scenario.  Separate studies were completed for each of Russia’s major petroleum provinces.  An estimate of 43 billion barrels of additional reserves through exploration encompasses a risk factor of probable reserves, possible reserves and potential resources at 50%, 25% and 10% respectively.  While West Siberia accounts for approximately 50% of probable and possible reserves, it accounts for less than 5% of potential resources, while 90% of potential resources will be located in East Siberia and the Russian Shelf.  Russian production capability has been enhanced by utilization of modern technology and economic efficiency, although to date this has only been fully utilized by YUKOS and Sibneft.  In lifting costs, (CAPEX + OPEX) these two companies rival costs in the Middle East of less than $4/bbl.  With a reserve base in excess of 100 billion barrels and increasing efficiency, Russian production will continue to increase to more than 10 MMBO/D within five years and can sustain that level through 2020.  After 2010, however, production will increasingly come from Timan Pechora, East Siberia and the Russian Shelf, and by 2020, these higher cost areas will contribute up to 50% of Russian production.  The ability to export the increased production will be facilitated by three major pipeline projects: expansion of Primorsk to serve the European market, the Murmansk pipeline for the U.S. market, and the Angarsk-Daqing pipeline for the China market.    Back to Proceedings