ABSTRACTS
 2nd International Workshop on Oil Depletion
Paris, France, May 26-27 2003
Organised by the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas
The workshop was held at the  Institut Francais du Pétrole , Rueil Malmaison, Paris.

  Proceedings of the 2nd International Workshop on Oil Depletion, Paris, France, May 26-27 2003,
Edited by K. Aleklett, C. Campbell and J. Meyer, www.peakoil.net/iwood2003 .

The Physical Modelling of Future World Energy Demand Malcolm Slesser Though human greed may be the driving force for economic expansion, the unique factor that makes it possible is thermodynamic work.  This is the only non-substitutable physical input to the economic process.  The current source of such work is largely obtained from fossil fuels, of which oil and gas are the most convenient forms.  By recognising that energy must be invested in order to extract and refine further energy supplies, it is possible to construct a world-scale model to determine the maximum rate at which the world economy can expand, and thus the future demand for fuels, provided there is information on the energy dissipated per unit energy delivered as a function of depletion.  This procedure is known as Natural Capital Accounting, and is articulated in the ECCO model, an example of which is posted on the internet.   Such a world model (GlobEcco) was developed in 1992, on the data as then known.  The forward evolution of this model from 1992 to 2050 reveals a future demand for oil and gas close to that posted in the ASPO newsletters, with economic growth virtually ceasing after 2025.  Updating such a model is merely a matter of investing research time.  It should then be possible to develop a reasonably rigorous profile of future oil and gas depletion, and a picture of world economic prospects.    Back to Proceedings