ABSTRACTS
 2nd International Workshop on Oil Depletion
Paris, France, May 26-27 2003
Organised by the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas
The workshop was held at the  Institut Francais du Pétrole , Rueil Malmaison, Paris.

  Proceedings of the 2nd International Workshop on Oil Depletion, Paris, France, May 26-27 2003,
Edited by K. Aleklett, C. Campbell and J. Meyer, www.peakoil.net/iwood2003 .

Energy Supply Conditions and Oil Price Regime Jean-Marie Bourdaire The energy world is shaped by four drivers: ·    the needs and behaviours of the consumers; ·    the technological progress and new ways of “doing”; ·    the perception of risks and their implications; ·    the evolution of regulations and of decision-making powers. These drivers change, either because of Man, through his creativity or his folly, or because of Mother Nature, through the scarcity or abundance of natural resources. Yet, all these changes end up in a unique kind of change, that of the price of energy, either higher or lower than what it was before. Gathering the prices of all primary energies and energy-related final services into the single concept of  “energy price” may look like an over-simplification because primary energies and final energy services are very different in terms of “quality”: wind is different from oil just as running a PC has little to do with running a car or heating a building.  Nevertheless, the history of energy shows that the primary energy that is used “at the margin” plays the most important role because it sets the price for all primary energies.  History also shows that final prices only partially reflect the price of primary energies but that the fixed cost component varies little and with great difficulty. The paper will proceed along four parts: ·    Analyse the first oil shock as the greatest event so far because the marginal energy and price-setter that had been coal since the early days of the industrial revolution then became oil. ·    Show that oil prices always follow a pattern starting with a price rise because of a scarcity and followed by a 3%/y regular decline thanks to improvements and economies of scale. ·    Explain how this pattern that had little impact up to 1948 (oil was a small component of the energy portfolio) has become and will remain the fundamental driver of the energy scene. ·    Propose a new vision of the future energy scene based on the recent or still to appear energy imbalances with their implications in terms of energy demand and GHG emissions. This paper draws heavily on an important study of the 2001-2004 programme of the World Energy Council.  This study, titled “Drivers of the Energy Scene”, is chaired by Dr. Majid Al-Moneef, Economic Advisor to the Minister, Ministry of Petroleum and Mineral Resources, Saudi Arabia.  The author is indebted to WEC for using some of the materials gathered in this study.  However, the presentation itself and conclusions are those of the author and do not engage WEC. Back to Proceedings