ABSTRACTS
 2nd International Workshop on Oil Depletion
Paris, France, May 26-27 2003
Organised by the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas
The workshop was held at the  Institut Francais du Pétrole , Rueil Malmaison, Paris.

  Proceedings of the 2nd International Workshop on Oil Depletion, Paris, France, May 26-27 2003,
Edited by K. Aleklett, C. Campbell and J. Meyer, www.peakoil.net/iwood2003 .

The 2003 Update of the ASPO Oil & Gas Depletion Model Colin Campbell & Anders Sivertsson What we can term the ASPO Oil and Gas Depletion Model has developed over many years, based on an evolving knowledge of the resource base, culled from many sources, and evolving ideas about how to model depletion.  It is sure that the estimates and forecasts are incorrect.  The question is: By how much? The model recognises so-called Regular Oil, which excludes the following categories: ·    Oil from coal and shale ·    Bitumen and synthetics derived therefrom ·    Extra Heavy Oil (<10o API) ·    Heavy Oil (10-17o API) ·    Deepwater Oil (>500 m) ·    Polar Oil ·    Liquids from gas fields and gas plants It has provided most oil to-date and will dominate all supply far into the future.  Its depletion therefore determines the date of peak.  The evidence suggests that about 896 Gb (billion barrels) had been produced to end 2002; about 871 Gb remain to produce from known fields and about 113 Gb is expected to be produced from new fields.  It is convenient to set a cut-off of, say 2075, for such production, to avoid having to worry about the tail end that can drag on for a long time. A simple depletion model assumes that production declines at the current Depletion Rate (annual production as a percentage of future production) or at the Midpoint Rate in countries that have not yet reached Midpoint (namely half the total).  The five main Middle East producers, which hold about half of what remains, are assumed to exercise a swing role, making up the difference between world demand and what the other countries can supply.  The base case scenario assumes that consumption will be on average flat until 2010 because of recession; and that the Middle East swing role will end then, as in practice those countries will no longer have the capacity to discharge it.   Whether the Iraq war results in extending or shortening the swing role remains to be seen.  Adding the contributions of the other categories of oil and gas liquids gives an overall peak in 2010. Gas depletes differently, being more influenced by infrastructure.  Production tends to follow a plateau rather than a peak.  The United States is now close to the cliff that marks the end of the plateau and  Europe not far behind.  World supply is tentatively assumed to reach a maximum of about 130 Tc/a, lasting from 2015 to 2040 before declining abruptly.  The production of coal bed methane and gas from “tight” reservoirs is expected to increase slowly, but methane hydrates are dismissed as an unrealistic source of energy. Back to Proceedings