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Canada’s Oil Sands Resources and
Its Future Impact on Global Oil Supply
Bengt Söderbergh
Supervisor: Professor Kjell Aleklett
Assistant Supervisor: Fredrik Robelius
Abstract
Approximately 2000 billion barrels of conventional oil may ultimately be
extracted. We have soon consumed half of it. Global oil production may peak
around 2010. It is claimed that non-conventional oil production, including
Canadian oil sands production, may bridge the coming gap between the world’s
oil demand and global oil supply. In 2003 the oil sands reserves were included
in Canada’s estimated proven reserves, thus increasing from 5 to 180 billion
barrels. The objective of this report is to investigate and analyse the production
of heavy oil/bitumen from Canada’s oil sands deposits and its future impact
on global oil supply.
The report shows that the Canadian oil sands industry’s dependence on natural
gas is unsustainable. Extensive use of bitumen for fuel and upgrading seems
to be incompatible with Canada’s obligations under the Kyoto treaty.
The Canadian oil sands industry should be viewed as two separate forms of
oil production, in situ production (similar to conventional oil production)
and mining. The long-term future of the Canadian oil sands industry is the
in situ production, although great uncertainty is associated with its potential.
If a massive effort is made to put the whole oil sands mining area into
production, a plateau production and a following decline are expected for
the oil sands mining industry. The declining oil sands mining production
may cause a peak production for the Canadian oil sands industry as a whole,
since it is uncertain if the in situ production may compensate for the declining
mining activities.
The future Canadian oil sands production cannot even compensate for the
combined declining conventional oil production in Canada and the North Sea.
The most optimistic scenario will not manage to compensate the decline by
2030. Canada’s oil sands resources cannot prevent a global peak oil scenario.
(Read report
)
(Contact: Kjell Aleklett,
aleklett@tsl.uu.se
, +46 70 425 0604
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