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Kjell Aleklett, President
of ASPO
I will always remember the summer of 2005 as the summer of forums. Since
Roman times a forum has been a place where people come together, a place
where opinions are discussed and decisions made. This summer I was invited
to participate in two forums; Future Global Politics and How on Earth Can
We Live Together. The first one was at the old university town Salamanca,
Spain, and the second at Tällberg, Sweden.
Forum at Salamanca
At the end of June Fundacion Sistema organized the IV Forum for Debate
in Salamanca, Spain. The fourth panel of the forum was about Resources and
Sources of Energy the title of my contribution was: Peak Oil – A Historical
Event. (Go to PowerPoint presentation). A publication for the forum was also
written and you can read it here (go to the article).
Pedro A. Prieto, Crisis Energetica, www.crisisenergetica.org, member
of ASPO, participated in the forum and he has made the following summary:
ASPO AND THE PEAK OIL IN SALAMANCA
The IV Meeting on Politics on Earth was held in Salamanca, in June 22-25th.
Sponsored by the Fundacion Sistema, whose president, Alfonso Guerra, is
the chairman of the Constitutional Commission of the Spanish Parliament
and was vice president of the Spanish Government from 1982 until 1991.
Prominent personalities attended as speakers, like the president of the
European Parliament, Jose Borrell, in the closing session, the chairman of
the WorldWatch Institute, Øystein Dahle, Mark Sagoff, emeritus researcher
in Environment and Environment Ethics at the University Maryland and a good
panel of scientists from all over the world. There were four panels, devoted
to Population, Development and Quality of Living, Environment, Sustainable
Growth and Ecologic Politics, Hunger and Food and finally, the Fourth Panel,
on Resources and Energy Sources.
The moderator of the panel was Felix Yndurain, Former Director of CIEMAT
(Center for Energetic, Environmental and Technological Research), and Professor
of Physics. Autonomous University, Madrid. Speakers were Rolf Tarrach Rector
of the University of Luxemburg and Former President of CSIC (Superior Council
of Scientific Research), Hermann Scheer, Member of the German Parliament,
President of Eurosolar, Kjell Aleklett, Professor of Physics at Uppsala University,
Sweden, and President of the Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas;
and Valeriano Ruiz, Professor of Thermodynamics and Renewable Energies, University
of Seville.
The presentation of known data on world oil production, consumption and
reserves, started the panel. Tarrach explained that a human being is basically
a consumption machine of some 100 watt average power,; that the world average
was today in some 2,000 watts and Europeans and North American citizens were
behaving like 5,000 to 10,000 watts respectively. He quoted and measured the
concept of modern well being from the Human Development Index of the United
Nations as in the level of 3-4 KW. He said that all energy spent beyond this
level could be considered simple squandering.
Hermann Scheer proposed exactly what is in his well known books, like
“Solar Global Economy” and others. Scheer did not elaborate on back up systems
for night or calmed days, in solar and wind energies, respectively, although
he mentioned that there were at least seven proven energy storage systems.
Aleklett gave a complete overview on the declining oil discoveries, of
both giant fields and the total number of discoveries, in absolute figures,
since the sixties. He explained also about the ageing of the biggest fields
in the world and especially shocking for the audience was the growing gap,
between discoveries and production.
Alfonso Guerra, quoted Professor Aleklett and ASPO, in the closing session,
in the presence of the President of the European Parliament, Jose Borrell.
Guerra cited specifically his grave concern for the fact, detailed by Aleklett,
that 50 years ago, the world was discovering 30 billion barrels a year and
consuming 4 billion, whilst today, we are discovering close to 4 billion
and consuming 30 billion. Guerra said this information was the key to understanding
the gravity of the coming problems (commenting with some political colleagues,
that this was much more important than day-to-day regional or domestic politics)
and he said he did not care whether the IEA or ASPO were right in the peak
dates; for him both were “tomorrow” in historical terms.
We can now conclude that the message of the peak oil and the consequences
has been heard by top responsible leaders of the European Union and has
been acknowledged by a prominent member of the Spanish Parliament. We can
hope that soon this fact of peak oil is taken into consideration in the
future European constitution, whatever it is, as it has already been included
in the White Book on Energy of the Catalonian autonomous government. And
finally, let us all hope that solutions to avoid or at least minimize the
consequences ahead are soon implemented. As Alfonso Guerra said, “the solution,
if any, it has to be through politics”
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Views from Salamanca
Old university
EU parlament President Borrell addressing to forum
Jose Borrell and Kjell Aleklett, ASPO
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Forum at Tällberg
The second forum was in Tällberg, Sweden, and the theme of the forum
was “How on earth can we live together?” Tällberg is a small village
in the province of Dalarna, far away from the university towns like Uppsala.
(Web information about the forum and about Tällberg in Swedish).
The organizers: “The aim of the Tällberg Workshops is to achieve a
“meeting of minds” and the cross-fertilization of ideas. The Workshops are
designed to inspire ongoing and open conversations that in turn result in
action and change, and sow seeds that over time will come to fruition in
many different places, processes and institutions. The intention with the
Workshops has never been to seek consensus and conclusions. It is up to every
participant to take back ideas for action and change.”
In total, there were 400 participants from around the world invited to participate.
The Secretary-General of United Nations, Kofi Annan, was schedule to give
the opening address at the meeting, but as he had surgery just before the
meeting he was not allowed to travel. He addressed the forum on a video and
gave the following message about Development, Security, Human Rights Reinforce,
and Depend on Each Other:
Nane and I are very sorry that we could not be with you in person today.
But we are with you in spirit. Gatherings such as yours provide a precious
opportunity. By bringing together leading thinkers from so many countries
and backgrounds, you can come up with creative approaches for dealing with
some of the most important issues of our time.
I am glad that the schoolchildren of Tällberg have written to me with
questions about some of those issues. Questions like, what can we do about
the lack of clean water? How do we stop the spread of HIV/AIDS and other
diseases? Who will assume responsibility for ending poverty and starvation?
How can all of us help prevent war, no matter where we live? Those questions
cut right to the core of what affects us most as human beings. They
present a challenge to us all.
They are also the kind of questions the United Nations is focusing on in
this, our 60th anniversary year. To address them, we must accept
· - that development, security and human rights
are not only ends in themselves they reinforce each other, and depend
on each other;
· - that in our interconnected world, the human
family cannot enjoy security without development; cannot enjoy development
without security; and cannot enjoy either without respect for human rights;
· - and that to act on that understanding, we need
a strong United Nations.
I believe that is how we can best live together on Earth. I am glad that
you are ready to make common cause with us in that mission. In that spirit,
I wish you a most stimulating Forum.
Thank you very much. Tack så mycket.
(http://www.unis.unvienna.org/unis/pressrels/2005/sgsm10024.html)
The forum in Tällberg was organized in the spirit of the old Roman
forums. The square was a big tent and the participants were organized into
groups of ten with the members in the discussion groups coming from different
parts of the world. The members in my group, group 32, came from China, The
Netherlands, France, and Sweden.
The forum had plenary sessions, -parallel workshops and conversations. Energy
and Peak Oil were discussed in a workshop. In one of the sessions, it was
concluded that the global GDP have to double if the poor people of the world
should have a chance to better life. We know from what is now happening in
China that this is equivalent to the world needing twice the amount of oil
as we use today. Energy and the energy stored in oil is the foundation for
modern mankind. We must find much more efficient energy systems if there should
be any hope for the world.
The panel discussions were al very interesting and I can just touch upon
only a fraction of the topics.
“How on earth can we live together?” was the first question raised. Bo Ekman,
the founder of Tällberg forum, looked back on the 25 years that the forum
has been going on. I think that this one-man initiative is fantastic and
let us hope that ideas from the forum will bring the world forward.
In the session “It takes a world to raise a future”, we heard reflections
from three very strong women, Christine Loh, Civic Exchange, Hong Kong, “Hong
Kong’s Green Queen” (http://www.actionasia.com/actionasia/Articles/index.jsp?aid=746),
Mary Robinson, Ethical Globalization Initiative, Ireland, and Zainab Salbi,
Women for Women International (http://impactingwomen.com/Inspire/Zainab.html),
Iraq.
Mary Robinson, The former Irish president and UN High Commissioner for Human
Rights, “It is time for the world to get angry”. It is worth reading an interview
with Mary Robinson from December 2003, http://www.opendemocracy.net/debates/article-6-27-1627.jsp#.
One of the prominent participants was the King of Sweden, Carl XVI Gustaf,
who addressed the forum with a talk about environmental issues and said that
action on climate change is needed now if future generations are to survive.
“Ladies and gentlemen,
I am pleased to be here and to be able to share some thoughts with you on
an issue very close to my heart.
Have you ever heard the story about the frog and the boiling water?
If you put a frog in a bowl with hot, boiling water it will jump out at
once. But if you put a frog in cold water and heat it slowly, the frog will
stay and adjust to the water until it is too late for it to flee. Of course
it will die.
The story is about adjustment and the risk of not facing a serious problem
until it is too late. It strikes me as a provoking image of how to face a
likely change of climate. And how to survive in a decent, human world. “
The rest of the talk can be read on the site of the Royal Court of Sweden.
http://www.royalcourt.se/aktuellt/tal/talarkiv/5.39b99d1050f476a6480003144.html
Other prominent participants in the forum were
· Prince Hassan bin El Talal of the Hashemite Kingdom
of Jordan
· Margot Wallström, Vice-President, EU Commission,
Sweden
· Mikheil Saakashvili, President of Georgia
· Hans Blix, Weapons of Mass Destruction Commission,
Sweden
Besides listening, thinking and discussion we were offered several cultural
activities and artists from around the world was also invited. Al in al it
was a fantastic forum and Bo Ekman could be very pleased when he closed the
Forum, and the question is What’s next? Now it is up to al the participants
to bring with them the spirit of Tällberg in the work to come. Bo Ekman
also said some words about next years Forum. Lord Browne, CEO of BP, had been
invited to participate this year but had to decline the invitation. However,
he has promised to come next year. Who knows, Peak Oil might be on the program
next year.
Before the closing remarks, all the reflection groups got an opportunity
to put forward their conclusions. For some reasons our group discussed oil
in great detail, and below are our reflections. But first I need to explain
“The Dollar Street”. If we take the income that a family has and let them
live on one street with the rich one in the east district and the pore one
in the west district you get the Dollar Street.
Reflection Group 32
On Sunday, we saw some very nice graphs that showed how people lived on
the “Dollar Street”. One graph was missing though, the graph showing how
much oil and energy we use. The six billion persons on the globe are consuming
30 billion barrels of oil each year and that means that on average we are
using 5 barrels per person. In the nice districts of the Dollar Street in
USA they are using 25 barrels per person, in China less then half a barrel
and in some of the countries in Sub Sahara much, much less. If we don’t change
our habits and if we have the same trends tomorrow as we have today, the
global production of oil will peak within the next 5 years and 40 years from
now the production will be just half of today’s production. We have to change
our habits. There will not be enough energy for the one billion new inhabitants
on the Dollar Street. There will not be time to increase the amount of renewable
energy that is needed to give the new inhabitants a decent life. They will
end up in the slum district.
If you are thirsty and you jump into the car and drive 5 km, 3 miles, to
the grocery store and buy a six-pack of beer or Coke and then drink it when
you come back home, then you have also consumed a six-pack of crude oil. If
you live in USA you use 9 of the 25 barrels just to get the food on the table.
Obviously, they spend much less oil in China to get the food on the table.
Traveling the Dollar Street we know that the inhabitants in the slum district
need to use more oil, or more correctly more energy, but the gas station
has a sign “Closed” and there might even be hard for the inhabitants to find
something to burn to get a fire and cook the food. The inhabitants in the
slum districts should have the right for energy. The right to energy should
explicitly be part of the human rights.
Yesterday Shashi (Tharoor) was very proud that UN could make it possible
for us to make a safe international flight coming to Tällberg and going
back again. He mentioned all the roles that were of importance for us in the
business district of the Dollar Street to be safe, but he said nothing about
the roles that are needed to travel from the slum district to the business
district. We need to concentrate on those roles.
Long ago, probably in Africa, there was a person that learned how
to light a fire, how to use energy, and she or he drank water. In the slum
district of the Dollar Street, they now have a right to clean water, but
so far, they do not have any explicit right to energy. It is time for that
now. We can have any great ideas for the world, as many have had at the Tällberg
Forum, but without energy we can not do anything. It is time for UN to define
some rights for energy, and it is time for us to act now. If not we will soon
have many more in the slum district of the Dollar Street.
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Bo Ekman
Queen and King of Sweden
Chairman of Tällberg foundation Anders Wijkman
Reflection group 32
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