|
|
Deutsche Bank Research
|
From Deutsche Bank Research, December 2,
2004
http://www.dbresearch.de/PROD/DBR_INTERNET_DE-PROD/PROD0000000000181487.PDF
page 9
ASPO view
The Association for the Study of Peak Oil&Gas, ASPO (see various articles
from K. Aleklett and C.J. Campbell at www.peakoil.net
), a group of former petroleum geologists in the service of prominent petroleum
corporations (e.g. BP Amoco) argues in favor of taking a different angle.
It assumes a steep ascent in the output curve up to a peak, followed by a
comparatively flat descent. The result is that the peak in production comes
well ahead of the depletion mid-point, meaning that the production curve peaks
far earlier than hitherto anticipated. Initially this applies to oil, and
then, with time lag, to natural gas. In its mid 2004 updated forecast for
oil, the ASPO brought the peak for oil forward from 2010 to 2008.
Dramatic implications of ASPO scenario
Were the ASPO scenario to prove correct, the consequences could be dramatic.
Within the space of just a few years oil supply would start to shrink in the
face of trend growth in global demand, driven not least by the increasing
hunger for energy in the heavily populated Asian countries. ExxonMobil expects
80% additional global demand for energy up to 2020 to come from the developing
countries (
see ExxonMobil, A Report on Energy Trends, February 2004, p.3
). In the worst-case scenario, the already emerging widening of supply/demand
gap could trigger a shortage shock leading to price crisis. This would also
impact world economic development.
Also conceivable, though, is a more or less steady climb in the price of
oil (and later also natural gas), which would tend to rein in demand for the
energy carrier and encourage gradual substitution. What is more, price increases
would imply an expansion of the reserve base as non-conventional reserves
and current resources become more price-competitive. The peak calculated with
reference to “present reserves” could then be delayed for a few more years.
The possibility of realigning the energy mix without radical economic disturbance
would be all the more likely, the sooner politicians, industry and private
consumers respond to the signs of the times on the markets for hydrocarbons.
Venturing to look farther forward on the supply of energy, say to the end
of our century, by then the future will already be behind us, at least in
terms of petroleum. The end-of-the-fossil-hydrocarbons scenario is not
therefore a doom-and gloom picture painted by pessimistic end-of-the world
prophets, but a view of scarcity in the coming years and decades that must
be taken seriously. Forward-looking politicians, company chiefs and economists
should prepare for this in good time, to effect the necessary transition as
smoothly as possible.
…
Conclusion: Time to act
|
|
|
|
