Last night I got a call from Peter Coy, Economics Editor for Bloomberg Businessweek in New York and he wanted to ask some questions about the claim that the United States in the future would export oil. Our discussion is now published on Bollmberg BusinessWeek, Global Economics, Here is a copy of the article: (http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2012-11-12/u-dot-s-dot-the-new-saudi-arabia-peak-oilers-scoff#disqus_thread).

U.S. the New Saudi Arabia? Peak Oilers Scoff

By Peter Coy on November 12, 2012

The U.S. is set to increase oil production so much that it will overtake Saudi Arabia and become the world’s biggest producer by around 2017, the International Energy Agency said today.

The reaction from “peak oil” theorists? Not a chance. They continue to argue that the surge in U.S. production coming from shale oil and shale gas is a flash in the pan. Before long, they say, U.S. output will start falling again—as will global output.

Today the IEA’s World Energy Outlook for 2012 was released. I will comment on the report when I have had an opportunity to read it. At the moment numerous newspaper articles have misunderstood the contents of WEO2012. For example, an article in the New York Times has been published under the headline: U.S. to Be World’s Top Oil Producer in 5 Years, Report Says. The errors in the article were so serious that the NYT was forced to publish the following correction.

Correction: November 12, 2012

“An earlier version of this article misstated the International Energy Agency’s prediction of American self-sufficiency in energy production. The agency said 55 percent of the improvement would come from more oil production and 45 percent from improvements in energy efficiency. It did not say that domestic oil production would rise 55 percent. Also, an earlier version of a photo caption with this article misidentified the equipment shown in use in an oil field in Greensburg, Kan.

Global Challenge: Recently, new data on available oil reserves, new deep-water deposits, oil sands and especially "shale gas" has given rise to concerns about what these resources means from a climate perspective. The seminar "Peak Oil Postponed?" Aims to analyze the importance of these tasks.
Charles AS Hall, a professor at SUNY College of Environmental Science and Forestry, and one of the authors of the book Energy and the Wealth of Nations. Hall has coined the term Eroi, "energy return on investment" and highlights this concept the significance of the various assets, net energy.

Participating is one of the most renowned in the field, Professor Kjell Aleklett of Uppsala University and chairman and co-founder of ASPO.

(Annick Hulth asked these questions in ”Nya horisonter”, [New Horizons] that is Uppsala University’s magazine on research, education and the interplay between these two activities. The magazine is published twice annually in April and October in both Swedish and English. New Horizons is distributed to decision makers, alumni, the media, the university’s collaborators and all its employees. 28,000 copies of the Swedish version are printed and 6,000 copies are printed in English. In Swedish:
http://viewer.zmags.com/publication/952f82f9#/952f82f9/10)

What will happen when the flow of oil declines?

“More powerful than all the armies in the world is an idea whose time has come”. That quote from Victor Hugo is included at the end of Professor Aleklett’s new book “Peeking at Peak Oil”. The book summarises ten years of research on what will happen when production of the world’s fossil fuels begin to decline.

How long have you been conducting research in this area?:
– For ten years. To do research on the world’s oil supplies one requires information that is not easy to access and so there is a dearth of academic research in this area.

On The Hill's Congress Blog you can find this not by Jan Lars Mueller, executive director of the Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas USA, a non-profit, non-partisan research and education group in Washington D.C. and Charles A. Hall, the ESF Foundation professor at the State University of New York at Syracuse and co-author of “Energy and the Wealth of Nations.”

This election is being framed as a choice between two different approaches to return to robust economic growth. But what if both sides are missing a critical underlying factor in our economic troubles? What if tools of the past no longer fit the economy of the future? Economic growth, as we have known it, is being constrained by an unprecedented slowing of growth in world oil supply. America’s path to future prosperity needs to recognize and confront this new energy reality, and adapt our economy to run on a lot less oil.

World crude oil production has been on a century-long rising trend—from less than one million barrels per day (mbd) in 1900 to nearly 75 mbd today.

“The Inter-Parliamentary Union” (IPU) has its seat in Geneva and was formed as long ago as 1889 on the initiative of the then freedom activists William Cremer of the United Kingdom and Frédéric Passy of Frankrike. They were both members of their respective nations’ parliaments and intended that conflicts would be solved by negotiation rather than war. In 1901 Frédéric Passy became the first person to receive the Nobel Peace Prize while William Cremer has to wait until 1903 for that honour. Today the IPU consists of 162 members and 10 associate members (http://www.ipu.org/english/home.htm).

(The flags of the member parliaments)

From 22 to 26 October the IPU gathered for its 127th meeting in Quebec, Canada. For the first time in its history it had a panel session that discussed energy.

“The Inter-Parliamentary Union” (IPU) has its seat in Geneva and was formed as long ago as 1889 on the initiative of the then freedom activists William Cremer of the United Kingdom and Frédéric Passy of Frankrike. They were both members of their respective nations’ parliaments and intended that conflicts would be solved by negotiation rather than war. In 1901 Frédéric Passy became the first person to receive the Nobel Peace Prize while William Cremer has to wait until 1903 for that honour. Today the IPU consists of 162 members and 10 associate members (http://www.ipu.org/english/home.htm).

(The flags of the member parliaments)

From 22 to 26 October the IPU gathered for its 127th meeting in Quebec, Canada. For the first time in its history it had a panel session that discussed energy.

Kjell Aleklett, President of ASPO International

On Tuesday I will give a presentation at UBC’s Okanagan campus in Kelowna, Canada. Currently, a number of pipelines are planned through British Columbia (BC) and the leadership of BC must agree to their construction. Many people are opposed to the projects and in my presentation I will attempt to explain why it is that China, above all, wants the pipelines built. To my surprise the organisers have sent out a press release (https://news.ok.ubc.ca/2012/10/18/peeking-at-peak-oil-the-tap-of-the-canadian-oil-sands/) and have invited the public to attend the presentation titled, “Peeking at Peak Oil – The Tap of the Canadian Oil Sands”.

Without new “taps” it will not be possible to expand the production of the very viscous oil from Alberta. Currently there is one pipeline from Edminton to Vancouver and it passes north of Kelowna. Its capacity was increased to 300,000 barrels per day in 2005 and they are now planning to lay new pipelines along the same path so that the capacity will be increased to 750,000 barrels per day.

If the looming global oil crunch has been postponed for another decade or two as widely alleged, this is far from obvious in today’s commodity markets. Brent crude jumped to $115 a barrel last week. Petrol costs in Germany and across much of Europe are now at record levels in local currencies. Diesel is above the political pain threshold of $4 a gallon in the US, hence reports circulating last week that the International Energy Agency (IEA) is preparing to release strategic reserves.

Barclays Capital expects a “monster” effect this quarter as the crude market tightens by 2.4m barrels a day (bpd), with little extra supply in sight. Goldman Sachs said the industry is chronically incapable of meeting global needs. “It is only a matter of time before inventories and OPEC spare capacity become effectively exhausted, requiring higher oil prices to restrain demand,” said its oil guru David Greely. This is a remarkable state of affairs given the world economy is close to a double-dip slump right now, the latest relapse in our contained global depression.

James Staffprd from Oilprice.com were fortunate enough to have some time with Scotland’s First Minister Alex Salmond where they discussed a broad range of topics from Scotland’s ambitious renewable energy targets and North Sea oil & gas to Scottish independence and Donald Trump.

This interview is available in full from: Oilprice.com