A study by a German military think tank has analyzed how "peak oil" might change the global economy. The internal draft document -- leaked on the Internet -- shows for the first time how carefully the German government has considered a potential energy crisis.

The Peak Oil issue is so politically explosive that it's remarkable when an institution like the Bundeswehr, the German military, uses the term "peak oil" at all. But a military study currently circulating on the German blogosphere goes further.

The study is a product of the Future Analysis department of the Bundeswehr Transformation Center, a think tank tasked with fixing a direction for the German military. The team of authors, led by Lieutenant Colonel Thomas Will, uses sometimes-dramatic language to depict the consequences of an irreversible depletion of raw materials. It warns of shifts in the global balance of power, of the formation of new relationships based on interdependency, of a decline in importance of the western industrial nations, of the "total collapse of the markets" and of serious political and economic crises.

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Behind government dismissals of 'alarmist' fears there is growing concern over critical future energy supplies. Speculation that government ministers are far more concerned about a future supply crunch than they have admitted has been fuelled by the revelation that they are canvassing views from industry and the scientific community about "peak oil".

The Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC) is also refusing to hand over policy documents about "peak oil" – the point at which oil production reaches its maximum and then declines – under the Freedom of Information (FoI) Act, despite releasing others in which it admits "secrecy around the topic is probably not good".

Terry Macalister and Lionel Badal has written an article about this in The Guardian where they highlight the events going on behind the scenes in the UK government.

Read more: The Guardian

It was with a great sense of loss when we heard of Matt Simmons death. We wanted to express our greatest sympathy, and our hearts are truly saddened. Matt Simmons was one of the great pioneers of popularising Peak Oil, and was a great entrepreneur which founded the Ocean Energy Institute. He dedicated all his life to the work and his reaserch. His book, named “Twilight in the Desert: The Coming Saudi Oil Shock and the World Economy”, gave all of us a truth, which was that the world’s oil industy has already arrived the turning-point and we have entered the post oil age. Besides his book, as a global energy expert, his many reaserch presentations and lots of publication materials were a valuable tool for us. His contributions to the world and us will never be forgotten, and all of us will miss him for ever.

Feng Lianyong and other members of ASPO-China
Web: ASPO China
E-mail: fengly@yahoo.cn

British explorer Rockhopper said the latest well to be drilled in the Falkland Islands as part of a controversial exploration programme was found to be a dry hole. Oil exploration in the islands off the coast of South America has sparked protests from Argentina, which claims the British territory.

The drilling of Rockhopper's Ernest prospect was being closely watched after the Sea Lion well, drilled by the company in the same basin in May, made a significant oil discovery, sending Rockhopper's shares soaring by over 500%, Reuters reported.

"The result of Ernest is disappointing, but the well was always designed to investigate an entirely different geological play type from Sea Lion," said Rockhopper's managing director Sam Moody.

The company will now move to carry out further tests on the Sea Lion discovery to help it plan a potential appraisal campaign, Moody said. Ernest reached its target depth of 2240 metres with initial logs confirming that no hydrocarbons had been encountered, said Rockhopper.

Read more: Upstream Online

By Colin J. Campbell,
founder of ASPO, the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas

Matt Simmons in Denver at ASPO 8

The unexpected and tragic news of the death of Matt Simmons at the age of 67 has come as a great shock to his many friends and colleagues. But above all, our thoughts are with his wife, Ellen, and their five daughters, to whom we offer our condolences.

Matt had a successful life having co-founded Simmons & Co. International in 1974, an important bank, based in Texas, which specialised in funding oil contractors. He was the company’s Chairman and Chief Executive until 2005, when he took on a less executive role. His intimate knowledge of the oil industry allowed him to witness the nature of depletion and prompted him to pay attention to early studies on Peak Oil. He came to recognise the importance of the subject which will likely go down as a turning-point for mankind, given the central role of oil-based energy in the modern world.

Personal reflektions by Kjell Aleklett, President of ASPO International
(From the blog Aleklett's Energy Mix)

Matthew R. Simmons

Yesterday afternoon I received a message from Matt Simmons’ assistant Laura Russell that I found difficult to believe – it read that Matt had died suddenly. A few hours later the news had spread over the entire world (e.g. see an article in the Washington Post). It is with great sorrow that I now write these words.

In the autumn of 2001 I visited Colin Campbell in Ballydehob in Ireland. During the visit we discussed the possibility of organizing an international workshop on Peak Oil in Uppsala during the spring of 2002. I remember that I said that we needed speakers from the Middle East, Russia and the USA if we were to call the conference “international”. From the USA we thought of Matt Simmons.

With chock ASPO International has received the following press release from Laura Russell, Executive Assistant to Matthew R. Simmons, Rockland, Maine:

“Matthew R. Simmons, founder of the Ocean Energy Research Institute in Rockland, Maine, passed away suddenly on Sunday. He is survived by his wife, Ellen, and their five daughters. Mr. Simmons was also former chairman of Simmons & Company International. Details of services are pending. In lieu of flowers, the family asks that donations be made to the Ocean Energy Research Institute.”

Matt Simmons support of ASPO has been very important and we will come back with more information.

Kjell Aleklett
President of ASPO International

Read an article in the Washington Post:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/08/09/AR2010080903555.html

Most officials in both Europe and the UK still believe peak oil is a problem the markets will solve. That's a dangerous game to play with our energy supplies, says Lionel Badal.

Two years ago, the British government was still confident that oil reserves were abundant enough to meet rising demand until at least 2030. In other words, we should not worry. This cheerful message relied on the contested assessments made by the Paris-based International Energy Agency (IEA).

However, ever since numerous academic studies and industry reports have demonstrated that sometime within this decade global oil production will start to decline. In short, we are about to reach Peak Oil, and we are completely unprepared. Brace for impact.

Read more: The Ecologist

A new scientific article by M.J.W.A Vanderschuren, T.E. Lane, and J.J. Wakeford has been published in the journal Energy Policy. The article is entitled "Can the South African transport system surmount reduced crude oil availability?" and based on a joint project between ASPO South Africa and university researchers originally carried out for Department of Transport’s National Transport Master Plan.

Abstract:
This paper is based on an elaborate research project carried out in 2008. International ‘Peak Oil’ predictions were translated to the South African context as a basis for the energy analysis. Based on available plans for the implementation of new power plants, and the like, various energy availability scenarios were developed. On the transportation side, the current transport demand (passenger and freight) was combined with fuel efficiency knowledge in the transportation field. Planned or proven international efficiency improvement interventions were assessed regarding their feasibility in the South African context.